I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

Looking back at this past week, despite the back-and-forth geopolitical headlines, outside of Tech, it was largely a digestion week for the indices following the historic 2-week rally stretch.

On the week, the Q’s ended up being the best performing of the indices, closing higher by just over 230bps, whereas the Dow was the ‘worst’ performer, yet only finished lower by just over 40bps.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, Powell’s final FOMC meeting is set for Wednesday, and aside from that, excluding geopolitics, the main focus will be on PCE #’s Thursday, along with a few other minor, sporadic datapoints throughout the week.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 190.51% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 88.67% / Spooz has returned 71.32% / Dow has returned 58.19% & Small-caps have returned 52.91%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 82.1% win rate, averaging a 28.80% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, despite Tech sharply outperforming, as we highlighted earlier, it was largely a digestion period for the indices, and on the week, Growth modestly outperformed Value, although the spread between the two groups was only just over 30bps:

And year-to-date, the spread between Growth and Value still sits at around 7%, although it has narrowed from the prior highs near 14%:

And in respect to factor performance, aside from Momentum and IPOs, which were among the best performing groups, there was a clear deterioration in breadth under the hood, as reflected by the underperformance of the majority of factors on the week, with Private Equity being the worst performing group:

And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:

1. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty

2. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery

3. Google Ecosystem

4. Metals Supercycle

5. Truckload & LTL Re-Rating

Whereas on the flip side, the worst-performing baskets year-to-date have been:

1. The Global Marketplace

2. Gaming & Media

3. Make Housing Great Again

Moving along, following the digestion period across the indices, excluding Tech, this past week, the % of stocks above the 20D fell slightly to 67%, although in the shorter-term, still remains within overbought territory:

And on a broader timeframe, a similar statement can be made, with 62% of stocks currently remaining above the 50D, which isn’t necessarily extreme, but still reflects an overbought reading:

That said, following the recent historic 2-week rally, although the indices mostly consolidated this past week, excluding Tech, the Fear-Greed Index still remains within ‘Greed’ territory:

Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:

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Jumping straight into it, despite the back-and-forth geopolitical headlines, it’s been a quieter week as the indices have mostly been undergoing a digestion period following the historic 2-week rally stretch.

On the week, the Q’s remain the best performing index, currently higher by just under 100bps, whereas the remaining indices are all trading in line with each other, up roughly 10-25bps on the week, or in other words, essentially flat.

For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the recap, on the week thus far, after an initial bout of outperformance from Value, Growth is once again leading, with the spread between the two groups now sitting at just under 80bps on the week:

Although year-to-date, the spread between Value and Growth still sits just over 6%, yet has narrowed from the prior highs near 14%:

And in respect to factor performance on the week thus far, Momentum along with Growth are leading the way, whereas Low Volatility and Value remain the underperformers:

Moving along, with this recent digestion period across the indices over the last few days, we’ve seen conditions ease slightly from more extreme overbought levels, but with roughly 75% of stocks still trading above their 20D, this still remains near the upper end of the five-year range and continues to signal shorter-term overbought conditions:

Although on a broader timeframe, while overbought, conditions are still only modestly overbought rather than extreme, with the percentage of stocks above the 50D currently sitting at 65%:

And following the recent historic 2-week stretch, markets remain within ‘Greed’ territory after having oscillated within ‘Extreme Fear’ & ‘Fear’ territory for practically the last two months:

Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:

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Read more

I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

Looking back at this past week, and really the past two weeks, it’s been a historic stretch to say the least, as markets have continued to rally in a vicious manner, practically for the entirety of the stretch with the Nasdaq closing higher for 13 consecutive days, following the continued easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with growing cooperation with Israel progressing toward a ceasefire with Lebanon.

That said, on the week, the Q’s were the best performing index, rallying just over 600bps, whereas the Dow was the ‘worst’ performer, yet still closed higher by just over 300bps on the week.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, it’s yet another quiet week ahead, with really the only data of ‘significance’ being retail sales on Tuesday, along with a few other minor sporadic datapoints in between, but otherwise, it’s a relatively quiet week ahead.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 191.39% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 84.37% / Spooz has returned 70.41% / Dow has returned 53.46% & Small-caps have returned 57.69%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 82% win rate, averaging a 28.44% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, following the sharp and continued rally within the indices, we saw quite the unwind in the Value/Growth trade, with Growth outperforming Value on the week by just over 400bps:

Although year-to-date, the spread between Value and Growth still sits just over 7%, yet has narrowed from the prior highs near 14%:

And in respect to factor performance but on the week, IPOs along with Private equity were among the best performing groups whereas Low-volatility & High-yield were among the worst performing factors on the week:

And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:

1. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty

2. Metals Supercycle

3. Google Ecosystem

4. Next-Gen Space Economy

5. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery

Whereas on the flip side, the worst-performing baskets year-to-date have been:

1. Make Housing Great Again

2. India After the Reset

3. Gaming & Media

Moving along, following the large rally in the indices on the week, markets have quickly shifted from oversold to overbought, as the percentage of stocks above the 20D currently sits at 83% after being below 20% just a couple of weeks back:

Although on a broader timeframe, while overbought, conditions are more modestly overbought rather than extreme, with the percentage of stocks above the 50D currently sitting at 69%:

And following the recent historic 2-week stretch, markets have finally worked their way into ‘Greed’ territory after having oscillated within ‘Extreme Fear’ and ‘Fear’ territory for practically the last two months:

Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P (Yet again, Extreme Fear Marked the Low):

Subscribe now

Read more

I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

Looking back at this past week, the big news was the ceasefire reached between the U.S. & Iran, which in turn led to a sharp rally across the indices, with the Q’s being the best performer, closing higher by 444bps, whereas the Dow was among the ‘worst’ performing, yet still closed higher by just over 300bps on the week.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead, with the only standout datapoint being PPI #’s on Tuesday, along with a few other minor datapoints scattered throughout the week.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 180.12% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 73.63% / Spooz has returned 63.05% / Dow has returned 49.41% & Small-caps have returned 48.82%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.9% win rate, averaging a 28.32% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, despite the sharp rally in the indices following the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the spread between Growth & Value remained relatively contained, at just around an 80bps spread.

But on the year, the spread between Growth and Value has continued to widen, although has narrowed slightly more recently but still sits at just over 11%, down from 14%:

And another look in respect to factor performance but on the week, Momentum along with Spin-offs were among the best performing groups whereas Low-volatility & Private Equity were among the worst performing factors on the week:

That being said, following the large rally within the indices on the week, in the shorter-term, markets have quickly shifted from oversold to encroaching overbought as the % of stocks above the 20D currently sits at 68% after being below 20% just the other week:

Although on a more broader timeframe, the overall picture still leans more neutral in respect to readings as just 50% of stocks currently remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes a market that has worked out of oversold territory, but on a broader timeframe general conditions still lean more neutral, whereas in the shorter-term as we mentioned just above, are encroaching overbought territory:

And what’s even more interesting is despite the recent sharp snapback within the indices, the fear-greed index still remains in ‘fear’ territory despite Spooz for example being just 220bps off all-time highs.

Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:

And with that being said, last week’s ceasefire certainly caught many off guard as leading up into April, in March, we saw the largest net selling in over a decade and among the most aggressive since ‘11, while hedge funds were net sellers for a fourth straight month, cutting exposure at the fastest pace in 13-years:

And at the same time, funds have held onto high-conviction longs whilst aggressively hedging through index and ETF shorts, pushing macro short exposure to the highest levels since COVID:

And more notably, hedge funds have aggressively increased short exposure, pushing their long/short ratio to the most bearish level on record, even exceeding the extremes seen during the Liberation Day selloff:

And on the argument that individuals were long and simply hoping for a ceasefire, that certainly wasn’t the case, and even despite the rally last week, there still wasn’t much re-grossing, as equity positioning remains well into underweight territory, although it did tick slightly higher this past week:

Another graphic emphasizing this dynamic, whilst also including earnings consensus, which has continued to tick higher despite the volatility, whereas again, equity positioning remains well into underweight territory:

And lastly, from McElligott, we’ve had a very ‘overhedged’ market, and as the charts show below, the market was under-hedged for the right tail and over-hedged for the left tail, which again emphasizes that not many individuals were positioned for a ceasefire, and if the upside action continues, given positioning dynamics, it could certainly force a chase and re-grossing as individuals worry about underperforming the benchmark and missing a Liberation Day–type rally off the lows.

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Yet again, it’s been another eventful week geopolitically, as a ceasefire was reached between the U.S. and Iran last night, which in turn has led to a sharp gain across the indices on the week.

As of now, Small caps are currently leading as the best performing group, up just over 360bps, while the Dow is the laggard, though still sits higher by just over 300bps on the week.

For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the recap, taking a look at the week thus far, despite the sharp rally in the indices following last night’s ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran, after initially seeing a wide spread between the two groups (Growth & Value) earlier in the week (Both negatively & then positively today), the spread between Growth & Value is essentially flat on the week:

But on the year, the spread between Growth and Value has continued to widen, although has narrowed slightly more recently but still sits at just over 12%, down from 14% the week prior:

And another look in respect to factor performance but on the week, Momentum along with Small cap value are among the best performing groups whereas Low-volatility & Private Equity are among the worst performing factors on the week:

That being said, following today’s large rally amongst the indices, in the shorter-term, we’ve quickly shifted from oversold to encroaching overbought as the % of stocks above the 20D currently sits just below 73% after being below 20% just this past week:

Although on a more broader timeframe, the overall picture still leans more neutral in respect to readings as just 50% of stocks currently remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes a market that has worked out of oversold territory, but on a broader timeframe general conditions still lean more neutral, whereas in the shorter-term as we mentioned just above, are encroaching overbought territory:

And what’s even more interesting is despite the recent sharp snapback within the indices, the fear-greed index still remains well into ‘fear’ territory despite Spooz, for example, being just 4% off all-time highs.

And to add some historical context, here’s the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:

Subscribe now

Read more

I hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

Looking back at this past week, after initially declining earlier in the week, the decline ended up marking the bottom in the indices before a rally ensued through the remainder of the week as Trump stated the U.S. would leave the Middle East without the Strait of Hormuz opened, while marine traffic through Hormuz also started to pick up in the latter half of the week.

That being said, the Q’s ended up being the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by 397bps, whereas the Dow was among the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, yet still closed higher by just over 300bps on the week.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, the most important release will be PCE on Thursday, given it is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, along with CPI on Friday, but besides that, we just have a few more minor scattered datapoints throughout the week as well.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 174.70% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 66.21% / Spooz has returned 57.38% / Dow has returned 44.41% & Small-caps have returned 43.69%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.9% win rate, averaging a 28.13% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before jumping into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, in terms of factor performance, Momentum ended up being the best performing group whereas High Dividend Yield & Low-Volatility ended up being the worst performing groups on the week:

And on the week, given the snapback rally within the indices, Growth ended up outperforming Value on the week with the spread between the two groups sitting just under 150bps:

Although on the year, the spread between Value and Growth has continued to widen, although slightly narrowed this past week with the spread between the two groups down to 12.5% from 14% the week prior:

Moving along, following the risk-on action & snapback within the indices this past week, we saw quite the rebound within the % of stocks above the 20D, which currently sits at 56% & more so highlights a market that, in the shorter term, has worked off recent oversold conditions & is back toward a more neutral stance:

Although on a more broader timeframe, a different story can be told as despite the rebound, only 34% of stocks remain above the 50D, which still emphasizes a market that remains oversold on a broader timeframe, although in the shorter term, has worked off recent extreme oversold conditions:

And continuing on that note, even with the indices having worked into corrective territory this past week, although with the recent snapback higher, Spooz is only down 6% from all-time highs, we still remain well into ‘extreme fear’ territory.

And just to add some historical context, here’s the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with Spooz:

That said, with March now behind us, positioning tells a much more extreme story than price action alone, as while performance was weak, flows were far worse, with global equities seeing the largest net selling in over a decade and among the most aggressive since ’11, while hedge funds were net sellers for a fourth straight month, cutting exposure at the fastest pace in 13 years.

And more notably, hedge funds have aggressively increased short exposure, pushing their long/short ratio to the most bearish level on record, even exceeding the extremes seen during the Liberation Day selloff.

And tying this into positioning more broadly, the message is reinforced by JPM’s positioning monitor as well, with the 4-week change in their U.S. Tactical Positioning Monitor reaching nearly -3z, marking one of the most bearish readings on record.

As shown in the chart below, moves of this magnitude have historically coincided with periods of extreme de-risking and forced selling, often aligning with or slightly preceding durable lows in the S&P.

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I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

This past week was yet another eventful one geopolitically. As the week kicked off, indices initially moved higher following an announcement by Trump that the U.S. was in talks with Iran and negotiating, alongside a suspension of attacks on energy infrastructure to help facilitate a deal. However, as the week progressed, that optimism faded amid Iran’s more hardline rhetoric and a lack of visible progress between the two sides.

On the week, Small-caps ended up being the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by just over 30bps, whereas the Qs were the worst performer, finishing lower by just over 300bps.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, it will be a shortened one due to the Friday holiday, but outside of geopolitics, there is still a solid slate of data ahead. The most important release will be the March payrolls report, which is set for Friday & as a reminder, the February report showed a sizable loss of jobs (Although there were several caveats that distorted the headline figure) & in addition, we’ll get a mix of other labor & economic data points scattered throughout the week as well.

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- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

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Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 167.76% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 59.86% / Spooz has returned 52.16% / Dow has returned 40.17% & Small-caps have returned 39.01%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 28.14% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before jumping into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, in terms of factor performance, Small-cap Value along with High Dividend Yield were among the best-performing groups, whereas Growth was the worst performing factor, followed by Quality as the second worst performer:

And on the week, despite the brief rally earlier on, the overall tone skewed more risk-off, with Value ultimately outperforming Growth, as the spread between the two groups closed at just under 300bps:

And on the year, the spread between Value and Growth has pushed to new highs after initially narrowing through February and early March, with the spread now sitting at just under 14% between the two groups:

Moving along, following the risk-off action throughout the latter part of this past week and the indices well into corrective territory, just 24% of stocks are currently sitting above the 20D thus putting us firmly into oversold territory although not quite necessarily ‘washout’ territory (Prior ‘washout’ periods tend to bottom in the single-digits).

And a similar point can be made on a broader timeframe, as roughly 24% of stocks remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes that the market is firmly within oversold territory, and while conditions are not yet at complete ‘washout’ levels, we’re certainly getting close (Major bottoms over the last five years occurred at 12.5% in October ‘22, 15% in November ‘23, and 10% in April ‘25).

And continuing on that note, with the indices all firmly within corrective territory and Spooz itself sitting 9% off all-time highs, we’re now well into ‘extreme fear’ territory:

And just to add some historical context, here’s the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with Spooz:

That being said, moving to the indices, positioning data is beginning to reflect a meaningful flush, with hedge funds rapidly de-risking in recent weeks, as the pace and scale of net selling now sit near the most extreme levels of the past decade, comparable to major unwind periods like the Covid shock in ‘20 and to a lesser degree, Liberation Day in early ‘25.

And per DB, equity positioning has continued to trend lower, with equity exposure now sitting well below average and drifting toward the lower end of its historical range, although not quite yet at true capitulation levels.

That said, overall positioning has continued to drift lower, now sitting around the lower quintile of its historical range and roughly back to where it was in mid-March ‘25, although still not as washed out as the extremes seen in early April.

And finally, sentiment has continued to deteriorate, with GS’s U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator now sitting around -0.9, reflecting a meaningful reduction in equity exposure. Historically, readings below -1 have tended to align with stronger forward equity returns, with the signal becoming more compelling as the indicator pushes further into more extreme territory, particularly below -1.5.

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I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

This past week was yet another eventful one geopolitically, but initially, as the week kicked off, the indices started off strong following an announcement by Trump that the U.S. was looking to secure Hormuz by forming a coalition. However, as the week progressed, after an initially quiet few days, Israel escalated the war by striking Iranian energy infrastructure, along with a perceived ‘hawkish’ FOMC, which then led the indices to fade the earlier gains from the start of the week and close lower across the board.

Small caps, surprisingly enough, were the ‘best’ performing of the indices on the week, yet still closed lower by 177bps, whereas the Dow was the worst performing index on the week, closing lower by just over 220bps.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, aside from the continued geopolitical concerns, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead with just some smaller, scattered datapoints. However, PMI #’s on Tuesday, given the strong year-to-date trend thus far, will be interesting to watch to see if that recent momentum can continue.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 169.38% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 65.18% / Spooz has returned 55.21% / Dow has returned 41.26% & Small-caps have returned 38.50%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 28.14% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, in regard to factor performance, spin-offs along with momentum were among the best performing groups, whereas interestingly enough, low-volatility was the worst performing factor on the week, followed by growth as the second worst performing factor:

And on the week, with the relative risk-off action aside from the initial rally earlier in the week following Trump’s announcement of the U.S. looking to secure Hormuz by forming a coalition, value ended up outperforming growth, with the spread closing just under 90bps between the two groups:

That said, since the war first started, surprisingly enough growth is outperforming value by quite the margin, although the spread has certainly narrowed from the initial peak of 450bps and now sits just over 170bps between the two groups:

Moving along, with the risk-off action throughout the latter part of this past week and the indices well into corrective territory, just 18% of stocks are currently sitting above the 20D, putting us firmly into oversold territory and starting to encroach on ‘washout’ levels (For example, the % of stocks above the 20D during the Liberation Day selloff bottomed in the single-digits, so we’re getting close).

And a similar point can be made on a broader timeframe, as roughly 22% of stocks remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes that the market is firmly within oversold territory, and while conditions are not yet at complete ‘washout’ levels, we’re certainly getting close (Major bottoms over the last five years occurred at 12.5% in October ‘22, 15% in November ‘23, and 10% in April ‘25)

And continuing on that note, with the indices all firmly within corrective territory and Spooz itself sitting 7% off all-time highs, we’re now well into ‘extreme fear’ territory, although for a complete washout in sentiment, we’ve typically seen single-digit readings within that range, so not quite there yet but certainly deep into oversold territory:

Moving to the indices, Goldman noted that long-only funds net sold -$9.6bn across their floor on Thursday, running a 50% sell skew. This marked the largest day of net selling in their dataset going back to ‘22 and a 5-sigma event, surpassing the previous record of -$8.7bn on July 31, ‘25. And notably, the supply was broad-based and spread across all sectors.

Another interesting datapoint is that S&P 500 52-week market breadth has sharply declined, reflecting a growing disconnect between the aggregate index and the median stock, with fewer names driving the upside and breadth narrowing toward levels typically associated with weaker market internals. Looking back historically, excluding the current episode, there have only been around three prior instances where breadth reached similarly extreme levels:

And on the note of positioning, JPM noted that their U.S. Tactical Positioning Monitor’s 4-week change has fallen to -2.6z, making it one of the most bearish readings seen over the past few years:

And finally, one other point worth highlighting is the sharp drop in NAAIM, which further underscores the recent de-grossing we’ve seen across equities, with equity exposure now back to levels not seen since Q1 ‘25 and not far off the Liberation Day lows:

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The call was never just about commodities looking statistically cheap relative to equities (as commodities always tend to look cheap relative to equities), nor was it simply a reflexive bullish view on inflation hedges but it was instead rooted in a broader macro judgment: that the global policy regime was drifting back toward persistent stimulus, that fiscal discipline had largely become political theater, and that the physical economy was becoming strategically important again in a way markets had not yet fully priced.

At the time, a set of macroeconomic shifts was already becoming difficult to ignore:

• Fiscal discipline across much of the developed world had effectively disappeared

• Sovereign debt burdens were rising faster than economic output

• Central banks were drifting back toward accommodative policy

• Policymakers continued to signal normalization, but behavior suggested dependence on intervention

That matters because environments like this tend to favor real assets. When financial claims expand rapidly through monetary & fiscal policy while the supply of physical resources remains constrained by geology, permitting, labor, and infrastructure, scarcity begins to reassert itself. Energy cannot be printed. Copper cannot be manufactured through policy decree. Strategic materials remain subject to physical limitations regardless of the monetary regime. That tension has been at the core of nearly every commodity supercycle.

But there was another reason we focused on the theme when we did: the market was still entertaining the idea that a genuine turn toward fiscal restraint might emerge in the United States. In our view, that belief was misplaced. Even back then, it increasingly looked as though DOGE would amount to a nothingburger and that the broader push for spending cuts would prove more cosmetic than real. The rhetoric around restraint was loud, but the structure of incentives pointed the other way. Between industrial policy, defense spending, the structural persistence of mandatory spending programs (such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid), election-cycle considerations, and the growing unwillingness of policymakers to tolerate economic pain, it seemed far more likely that spending would remain elevated than that Washington would suddenly rediscover discipline.

Looking at the actual scale of U.S. fiscal flows makes this dynamic obvious:

Nearly a year later, the macro conditions that originally supported the thesis remain firmly in place. Global deficits continue to expand, public debt levels are reaching historic highs, and central banks remain cautious about tightening policy aggressively for fear of destabilizing financial markets. In other words, the system still appears dependent on stimulus, even if officials remain reluctant to say so outright.

What was once considered crisis-driven fiscal expansion is now becoming a structural feature of the system.

Even after the post-pandemic peak, deficits have not normalized back toward pre-2020 levels. Instead, they have settled into a persistently elevated range, with annual deficits consistently running well above historical norms despite the absence of a recession or acute crisis. The key point is not simply the level of deficits, but their persistence. These are no longer temporary responses to economic shocks. They are becoming embedded features of the system.

In practical terms, this implies a steady increase in debt issuance, greater sensitivity to interest rates, and a reduced ability for policymakers to sustain restrictive conditions for extended periods of time without destabilizing the broader system. Over time, that dynamic reinforces the same conclusion: financial claims continue to expand while the supply of physical resources remains constrained. As that gap widens, the relative value of scarce, real assets begins to reassert itself.

Put differently, if this is what deficits look like during stable growth, the question is what they look like in a downturn.

And over time, that dynamic feeds back into the same structural pressures…

At the same time, the case for commodities is not only being reinforced from the supply side, but increasingly from demand as well.

AI is often framed as a digital or software-driven revolution, but in practice it is an extraordinarily commodity-intensive buildout. Hyperscale data centers require enormous quantities of electricity, copper, aluminum, steel, silver, cooling infrastructure, semiconductors, rare gases, and power equipment. The grid upgrades needed to support that buildout are themselves metal-intensive, relying heavily on materials such as copper, aluminum, and silver for high-efficiency electrical systems. Even the supposedly intangible parts of the next cycle are resting on a very tangible foundation of mined, refined, transported, and manufactured inputs. That point is critical because it means the next leg of commodity demand is not dependent solely on a traditional housing boom, an emerging market construction wave, or a one-off policy stimulus cycle. It is also being driven by the buildout of digital infrastructure itself. AI can’t replace the physical economy (unlike the recent fears surrounding software); it amplifies demand for it (scarcity).

Since Trump returned to office, the global economic backdrop hasn’t necessarily “broken,” but it has continued to shift in a direction that’s becoming harder to ignore. The world still runs through the U.S. in many ways, but it’s gradually becoming less singular, less centralized, and more distributed.

That doesn’t mean the dollar is going away or that U.S. leadership is disappearing. The U.S. is still the largest economy, still has the deepest capital markets, and still sits at the core of the global financial system. But what is changing is the behavior around it. More countries are starting to think in terms of optionality, not dependence.

And that shift doesn’t happen all at once. It’s subtle. It shows up in reserve allocation, in trade relationships, in how supply chains are structured, and in where capital is directed. On its own, none of it looks that dramatic. But taken together, it starts to move the system.

That was really the broader point behind the original thesis. It was never just about commodities in isolation, it was about the environment those commodities exist within. A world where fiscal discipline is more talk than reality, where central banks are increasingly constrained, where AI is beginning to translate into real, physical demand, and where geopolitical fragmentation is making control over resources matter more than it has in decades.

That was the setup back in April ‘25.

Nearly a year later, those same forces haven’t faded, if anything, they’ve become more visible, more coordinated, and harder to dismiss as temporary.

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I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.

This past week was yet another eventful one geopolitically as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate. Over the weekend in particular, markets experienced a brief wave of panic as oil prices surged nearly 30%, while equities fell roughly 3-4% across the board in the overnight session heading into Monday. However, rumors of a coordinated global SPR release, along with comments from Trump suggesting the war could be nearing an end, helped spark a sharp rebound in risk assets earlier in the week. That said, the rally faded through the latter half of the week following Iran’s threats to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz and continued escalations from both the U.S. & Iran. With traffic through Hormuz still disrupted, markets gradually drifted lower, leading to a slow bleed across the indices into the end of the week.

That being said, the Q’s ended up being the ‘best’ performing of the indices on the week, although still closed lower by just over 100bps, whereas the Dow was the worst performing of the indices on the week, having closed lower by just over 180bps.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, aside from geopolitical concerns, the most important event will be FOMC on Wednesday afternoon, along with the PPI report earlier that morning. Otherwise, it is a fairly quiet week on the economic front, with only a few other scattered datapoints in between.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 174.01% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 68.49% / Spooz has returned 58.50% / Dow has returned 44.52% & Small-caps have returned 40.75%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 28.17% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, in regard to factor performance, Momentum along with IPOs were among the best performing groups, whereas Private Equity was once again among the worst performing factors on the week:

That said, earlier in the week, following the announcement of a coordinated global SPR release along with Trump stating that the ‘war was pretty much over,’ risk assets staged a sharp rebound, leading Growth to outperform Value, with the spread between the two reaching roughly 180bps at one point. However, into the latter half of the week, the de-grossing resumed as the rally in risk faded, leaving Value to close slightly higher on the week and ultimately outperform Growth by roughly 60bps.

However, the most surprising development is that Growth is still outperforming Value since the war first began, with the spread between the two groups having peaked at roughly 450bps, though it has since narrowed to around 220bps following the fade in risk assets during the latter half of this past week:

Moving along, despite the choppy downward tape with all of the indices now officially negative on the year and majority sitting lower by just over 3% (Excluding Small-caps), the most notable development has been the deterioration under-the-hood, which has quickly pushed the indices from ‘neutral’ conditions to now oversold & as of now, just 24% of stocks remain above the 20D.

Looking back historically, readings can occasionally fall into the single digits during more extreme washouts, but generally speaking levels in the 15–30% range tend to signal that the market is becoming increasingly oversold, although not yet at full ‘washout’ levels.

And a similar point can be made on a broader timeframe, as roughly 29% of stocks remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes that the market is firmly within oversold territory & while conditions are not yet at ‘extreme’ levels, they are beginning to approach what could be considered near ‘washout’ territory.

And continuing on that note, even with the S&P sitting just 5% below all-time highs, recent action has pushed markets into ‘extreme fear’ territory.

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It’s been yet another eventful week within geopolitics as tensions between the U.S. & Iran continue to escalate. Over the weekend in particular, markets experienced a brief wave of panic, with crude oil prices rising nearly 30% and equity indices falling roughly 3% across the board in the overnight session. However, rumors of a coordinated SPR release led by the IEA, along with comments from Trump suggesting the war could be nearing an end, helped spark a sharp rebound in risk assets earlier in the week. Yesterday however, Iran threatened to place mines in the Strait of Hormuz, which trimmed some of the earlier gains in equities, although the Q’s are still the best performing of the indices on the week, currently higher by just over 130bps whereas the Dow is the ‘worst’ performing of the indices although is essentially flat on the week, lower by 9bps.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Read more

I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful ‘26 ahead.

This past week was an eventful one geopolitically as the U.S. joined alongside Israel in attacking Iran. It was a fairly choppy week up until the latter part, when oil began to aggressively rise from around 70/bbl to finish the week above 90/bbl.

As a result, Small-caps ended up being the worst performing of the indices, closing lower by just over 400bps, as markets began to price in a combination of inflation shock fears alongside concerns around demand destruction and slowing growth stemming from the rapid rise in crude. On the other side, the Q’s ended up being the ‘best’ performing of the indices on the week, although they still closed lower by just over 120bps, with the relative outperformance largely driven by a rotation away from value & back toward growth.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, aside from geopolitical concerns, the most important datapoint will be the PCE report on Friday, which has become somewhat of a sensitive point for markets given the prior report suggested that progress on disinflation may be starting to stall. Beyond that, we will also get CPI #’s on Tuesday, along with a few other scattered economic datapoints throughout the week.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 174.88% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 70.20% / Spooz has returned 60.91% / Dow has returned 47.25% & Small-caps have returned 43.21%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.7% win rate, averaging a 28.11% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, to take a look back at this past week, to surprise, Growth ended up outperforming Value on the week as the spread between the two groups closed at just over 280bps:

And another look in respect to factor performance, but on the week Growth was the best performing group, followed by Low Volatility, while Momentum was the worst performing factor, followed by Small Caps, Value and High Dividend.

So, war is bullish Growth?

Well, while energy for example has likely partially benefited from the cyclical rebound as the economy has undergone a re-acceleration over the past two months, the 26%+ performance on the year has, in our view, been largely attributed to the anticipation of conflict in the Middle East, which has also contributed to the broader Value over Growth outperformance. Although groups like Industrials and Materials have also benefited from the cyclical rebound, energy remains the clear standout and best performing sector on the year, largely tied to geopolitical risk pricing.

With that being said, despite the outperformance of Value over Growth on the year, since early February, Growth has essentially been flat while Value is nearly negative. If we were to see any sort of resolution within the Middle East that leads to de-escalation and lower crude prices, even if the war does not officially end, the gap between Growth and Value would likely narrow significantly. A reduction in geopolitical risk should bring back a more risk-on appetite for Growth, rather than investors crowding into defensive sectors within Value.

Moving along, following the weakness on the week, we’ve finally encroached into oversold territory, with just 32% of stocks remaining above the 20D. Looking back historically, readings can occasionally fall into the single digits during more extreme washouts, but generally speaking levels within the 15–30% range tend to signal that the market is becoming increasingly oversold, although not quite at full washout levels.

And a similar point can be made on a broader timeframe, as roughly 37% of stocks remain above the 50D, which is around where the reading bottomed in late November ‘25 following the rate-cut tantrum. While this is still far from extreme or full washout levels of oversold, it is certainly at least within oversold territory.

And continuing on that note, even with the S&P sitting just 4% below all-time highs, the underlying dispersion over the past few months, along with rolling blowups across a wide range of sectors, has pushed markets into ‘fear’ territory, nearly on the verge of ‘extreme fear.’

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It’s been an eventful week geopolitically as one of the more anticipated attacks in recent years finally took place over the weekend. The indices initially gapped lower on Monday before quickly recovering, erasing the losses & finishing the day in positive territory although moving into Tuesday, markets experienced a VaR shock that triggered the largest decline in emerging markets since the Covid ‘20 crash, accompanied by a sharp spike in correlations as nearly everything sold off except the dollar. Markets eventually found a bottom early in the morning, and since that low the indices have steadily rallied higher.

On the week, the Q’s are the best performing of the indices, currently higher by 57bps whilst the Dow is the ‘worst’ performing of the indices yet only sits lower by 39bps. Considering the magnitude of Tuesday’s decline, with indices falling around 3% across the board, the rebound that followed has been quite impressive.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Read more

I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful ‘26 ahead.

Looking back at this past week, despite continued AI-disruption fears and U.S.-Iran headlines, it ended up being a relatively choppy period, with action remaining concentrated in single stocks (dispersion) even as headline indices appeared relatively tame on the surface.

On the week, to surprise, the Q’s were the ‘best’ performing of the indices, though still closed lower by 25bps, whereas the Dow was the worst performing of the indices, having closed lower by 129bps.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data in the upcoming week, aside from geopolitical developments, the most important datapoint will be Friday’s NFP report. As a reminder, the January jobs report was a blowout, so it will be important to see whether that strength was largely driven by seasonal factors or if the February report reinforces the same underlying momentum. We also have retail sales on Friday, along with a handful of scattered economic datapoints throughout the week too.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 180.34% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 72.34% / Spooz has returned 64.17% / Dow has returned 51.72% & Small-caps have returned 49.21%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 27.87% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.34% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

To jump straight into it, we’ve now made it through the second month of ‘26, and despite relatively tame index-level action on the surface, it has been nothing short of chaotic beneath the hood in terms of single-stock volatility.

Year to date, the worst-performing group has been private equity, followed by growth, while the best-performing factor has been spin-offs alongside mid-caps.

Sector-wise, and unsurprisingly, software has been the worst-performing group year to date, while oil services, gold miners, and energy have been the best-performing sectors:

And in relation to growth versus value, given the sector leadership year to date, the performance spread has widened to roughly 12%, with value having outperformed growth:

With all that being said, despite the choppiness in February along with the extreme single-stock volatility & Spooz being 200bps off the highs, the Advance-Decline Line has still continued to make higher-highs:

And on that note, despite the broadening of upside participation (Advance-Decline Line Continued New Highs), the % of Stocks Above the 20D still remains more neutral (Instead of overbought & or oversold) as it currently sits at 48%, which again, is mostly attributed to the continued & violent single-stock volatility:

And a similar point can be made on a broader timeframe, as roughly 50% of stocks remain above the 50D (Neutral reading), despite the continued broadening in upside participation, which again emphasizes the ongoing dispersion within markets:

However, despite the neutral readings and headline indices sitting just below all-time highs, again, the market has continued to experience significant underlying dispersion & rolling blowups across multiple sectors, driven largely by AI-disruption narratives and long–short unwind dynamics & as a result, the Fear-Greed Index has continued to oscillate between fear and neutral and for now, sits within fear territory despite the Advance-Decline Index continuing to push to new highs.

Again, the key takeaway from February is that elevated single-stock volatility alongside a relatively tame index remains the dominant theme. Dispersion has pushed to record levels, with the average stock’s movement versus the index reaching new highs, underscoring how much of the action continues to occur beneath the surface rather than at the index level:

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To kick the recap off, despite the lack of economic data, it’s still been a more volatile week as AI-disruption fears earlier in the week continue to ripple across a plethora of sectors, and for now, it appears the selling pressure peaked on Monday into a washout bottom. Into the remainder of the week, U.S.-Iran talks are expected to continue tomorrow, and to round things out on Friday, we have PPI data on deck.

With that said, despite the running hysteria, the Nasdaq has been the best performing of the indices on the week, up just over 120bps, whilst the Dow has been the ‘worst’ performer, though only modestly lower by roughly 25bps.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Read more

I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful ‘26 ahead.

Looking back at this past week, despite the initial U.S.-Iran headline noise, it ended up being a relatively choppier yet slightly positive upside week as the single-stock volatility (dispersion) from the week prior finally started to subside & on the week, the Q’s ended up being the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by just over 110bps, whereas the Dow was of the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, having essentially closed flat (Higher by just 16bps on the week).

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead as there isn’t necessarily too much economic data of significance although on Friday, we do have PPI #’s but besides that, we just have a few sporadic datapoints in between & arguably the more important datapoint will be Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.

Share

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 183.23% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 72.77% / Spooz has returned 64.99% / Dow has returned 53.52% & Small-caps have returned 51.04%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 27.99% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.34% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, to take a look back at this past week, although the theme year-to-date has been a continued rotation toward Value over Growth, we finally saw a slight outperformance of Growth over Value this past week as tides are *potentially starting to shift.

Although again, on the broader picture for ‘26, Value has still drastically outperformed Growth as the gap between the group still sits just over 11% on the year:

With that being said, an interesting factor we highlighted this past week that we felt was worth reiterating is the magnitude of the recent underperformance of mega-caps relative to the broader S&P 500, with the 12-period rate of change in the $OEX:$SPX ratio currently sitting around -1.37%. Historically, readings near these levels have tended to coincide with the later stages of mega-cap underperformance rather than the beginning, often marking points where the rotation begins to stabilize or mean-revert as leadership broadens. While not a precise timing tool, this degree of relative weakness has, more often than not, signaled that much of the de-crowding in mega-caps has already occurred, suggesting the rotation may be closer to exhaustion than acceleration if broader market conditions remain supportive. Nvidia’s earnings this week will be particularly important in this context, as they could serve as a near-term catalyst for whether mega-cap leadership stabilizes or reasserts itself, especially if results & guidance reinforce the durability of AI-driven demand.

And adding to the point above, IWN/IWF (Value over Growth), while up roughly 23% since bottoming in mid-’25, is now approaching the ’20 lows / ’24 highs. As a result, if there were to be a reversal or at least a near-term snapback in the recent Value-over-Growth trend, we’re likely getting fairly close, even if IWN/IWF ultimately continues to head higher over the medium term.

And again, in terms of why this period of Value-over-Growth outperformance amplified these last couple of weeks, the biggest factor has been due to the continued pricing-in of an ongoing economic re-acceleration.

What kicked this off a few weeks back, or at least amplified it, was the ISM Manufacturing Index jumping to 52.6, marking the highest reading since January ’22. A move back into expansion territory reinforced the narrative of an economic re-acceleration which tends to favor value, cyclicals, & smaller caps, thus helping explain the recent momentum behind the Value-over-Growth rotation.

And since then, momentum around an economic re-acceleration has continued to build, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index once again reinforced that narrative, with business activity improving to the highest level since September ‘25, essentially right before the government went into a shutdown that caused a temporary slowdown ahead of this recent Q1 re-acceleration.

And jobless claims have also continued to reinforce this re-acceleration backdrop, as although we remain in a low-hire, low-fire labor regime, claims have stayed remarkably stable in the low 200k range, signaling employment stability without the kind of labor market tightness that would typically reaccelerate inflation (‘Goldilocks’ backdrop).

And as we’ve touched on these last few weeks but in regard to the pricing-in of an economic re-acceleration (Value-over-Growth), of the 5 best performing sectors YTD, the top 3 are Cyclical:

- Energy (Cyclical)

- Materials (Cyclical)

- Industrials (Cyclical)

- Staples (Defensive)

- Utilities (Defensive)

As a result, despite the recent whipsaw action along with Spooz being just over 120bps off ATHs, the Advance-Decline Line has still continued to churn & make higher-highs:

With that being said, despite the broadening of upside participation along with the continued higher-highs within the Advance-Decline Index, the % of Stocks Above the 20D still remains more neutral (Instead of overbought & or oversold) as it currently sits at 54% which is mostly attributed to the recent vast single stock volatility:

And similar can be said on a more broader timeframe as there is still 56% of stocks remaining above the 50D (Neutral Reading) despite the Nasdaq for example remaining below the 100D (Not far above the 200D either) which just emphasizes the recent dispersion within the markets:

However, contrary to the above and or despite the neutral signals implied by the continued broadening in upside participation, the Fear-Greed Index remains within fear territory & this comes even as market breadth continues to improve & the Advance–Decline Index pushes to new highs, once again highlighting the degree of dispersion across the market.

And adding to the point above, the chart below from BofA reinforces the view of broader ‘fear’ as we recently saw near-historic levels of outflows, with the latest reading marking the third-largest outflow since records began in ‘08. Again, this is not what you typically see in a market characterized by bullish exuberance; instead, it points to a market built on a significant amount of skepticism & upside complacency rather than euphoria.

And the chart below from GS reiterates the same underlying dynamic, as we’ve seen one of the sharpest declines in gross leverage among U.S. long/short funds:

And finally, before we jump into the remainder of the week ahead, one last chart worth highlighting is just how heavily positioned S&P 500 investors are for downside, with put delta sitting at extreme bearish levels. In essence, this reflects a market that is well hedged and characterized by fear rather than upside complacency. Historically, conditions like this are far more consistent with skepticism and late-stage de-risking than with the type of bullish exuberance typically seen at major market peaks.

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To kick the recap off, despite the U.S.–Iran headline noise, it’s been a relatively quieter yet choppier week on the index level, as last week’s under-the-hood volatility (dispersion) has finally started to simmer down following the rolling sector blowups tied to AI-disruption fears. With that being said, to round out the week, we have PCE #’s in the morning (the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation), and recent data continues to reiterate ‘Goldilocks’ conditions, although we also have a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs as well.

Nevertheless, on the week, yet again Small-Caps are the best-performing of the indices, higher by just under 70bps, whereas the Dow is the ‘worst’ performing index, although it remains essentially flat on the week (-12bps).

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Jumping straight into it, as we mentioned earlier but comparatively to this past week, it’s been much quieter, granted, much choppier as well but the continued rotation & or favoring of Value over Growth has remained as the gap between the group still sits just over 11% on the year:

With that being said, an interesting factor worth highlighting is the magnitude of the recent underperformance of mega-caps relative to the broader S&P 500, with the 12-period rate of change in the $OEX:$SPX ratio currently sitting around -1.37%. Historically, readings near these levels have tended to coincide with the later stages of mega-cap underperformance rather than the start of it, often marking points where the rotation begins to stabilize or mean-revert as leadership broadens out. While not a precise timing tool, this degree of relative weakness has more often than not signaled that much of the de-crowding in mega-caps has already occurred, suggesting the rotation may be closer to exhaustion than acceleration if broader market conditions remain supportive:

And adding to the point above, IWN/IWF (Value over Growth), while up roughly 24% since bottoming in mid-’25, is now approaching the ’20 lows / ’24 highs. As a result, if there were to be a reversal or at least a near-term snapback in the recent Value-over-Growth trend, we’re likely getting fairly close, even if IWN/IWF ultimately continues to head higher over the medium term.

And again, in terms of why this period of Value over Growth outperformance has amplified these last couple of weeks, the biggest factor has been due to the pricing-in of an ongoing economic re-acceleration as inflation still remains relatively tame.

What kicked this off a couple of weeks back, or at least amplified it, was the ISM Manufacturing Index jumping to 52.6, marking the highest reading since January ’22. A move back into expansion territory reinforces the narrative of an industrial re-acceleration, which tends to favor value, cyclicals, and smaller caps, helping explain the recent momentum behind the Value-over-Growth rotation.

And since then, momentum around an economic re-acceleration, and more specifically a ‘Goldilocks’ backdrop, has continued to build, with today’s Philly Fed Manufacturing Index once again reinforcing that narrative as business activity improved whilst prices paid moved lower:

Jobless claims have also continued to reinforce a ‘Goldilocks’ backdrop, as the low-hire, low-fire labor regime persists, signaling stability in employment without the kind of labor market tightness that would typically reaccelerate inflation:

And as we’ve touched on these last few weeks but in regard to the pricing-in of an economic re-acceleration (Value-over-Growth), of the 5 best performing sectors YTD, the top 3 are Cyclical:

- Energy (Cyclical)

- Materials (Cyclical)

- Industrials (Cyclical)

- Staples (Defensive)

- Utilities (Defensive)

As a result, despite the recent whipsaw action along with Spooz being just over 200bps off ATHs, the Advance-Decline Line has still continued to churn and make higher-highs:

With that being said, despite the broadening of upside participation along with the continued higher-highs within the Advance-Decline Index, the % of Stocks Above the 20D still remains more neutral (Instead of overbought & or oversold) as it currently sits at 51% which is mostly attributed to the vast single stock volatility:

And similar can be said on a more broader timeframe as well as there is still 56% of stocks remaining above the 50D (Neutral Reading) despite the Nasdaq for example remaining firmly below the 100D (Not far above the 200D either) which just emphasizes the recent & or amplified dispersion within the markets:

However, contrary to the above, and despite neutral signals implied by the continued broadening in upside participation, the Fear-Greed Index has slipped back into fear territory & this comes even as market breadth continues to improve & the Advance–Decline Index pushes to new highs, once again highlighting the degree of dispersion across the market. Elevated single-stock volatility remains a defining feature, with something akin to Liberation Day–style moves occurring at the individual name level, even as the indices themselves remain only marginally off their highs:

And in respect to positioning, despite Spooz having only pulled back about 200bps from all-time highs, Goldman’s U.S. equity sentiment indicator has already slipped back into negative territory. Considering the persistent calls of market exuberance and bubble conditions, sentiment and positioning remain far removed from levels typically associated with true market euphoria.

And finally, before we jump into the remainder of the recap, the chart below from BofA reinforces this point as well, showing near-historic levels of outflows, with the latest reading marking the third-largest outflow since records began in ‘08. This is not what you typically see in a market characterized by bullish exuberance; instead, it points to a market built on a significant amount of skepticism and upside complacency rather than euphoria.

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I hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful ‘26 ahead.

Looking back at this past week, index-level action was relatively contained early on, but volatility began to pick up into the latter half. Beneath the surface, dispersion remained the dominant theme, with significant volatility across single names continuing.

On the economic data front, the broader message of a ‘Goldilocks’ regime remains intact. Growth / Labor market data continues to point toward a re-acceleration, whilst inflation readings have come in more tame than expected.

And as for the indices, the group ultimately closed lower across the board. Small-caps were the ‘best’ performing of the indices although still closed lower by just over 90bps whereas the Qs were the worst performer, closing lower by roughly 140bps, as the rotation from growth to value persisted.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, it’s a shortened week given the holiday on Monday but generally speaking, it’s a relatively quieter week as well as the ‘biggest’ & or really only important economic data point is PCE #’s on Friday (Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation) along with a few smaller & sporadic datapoints scattered throughout the week.

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- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Refer a friend

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 181.97% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 70.82% / Spooz has returned 63.15% / Dow has returned 53.27% & Small-caps have returned 50.10%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 27.99% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.34% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.

Subscribe now

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, the continuation of the ‘AI will make everything extinct’ trade continued as all areas unrelated to materials & or the ‘real’ economy were picked off one by one.

Between brokers (SCHW) / Credit rating agencies (MCO) / Commercial real estate services (CBRE) / & lastly, Trucking & Freight (CHRW), quite literally no sector was safe:

Have we reached the 8-9th inning of the AI-disruption trade? Well, in the latter half of this past week, a former karaoke company (10 million market-cap) recreated itself as an AI-fueled logistics company & unveiled a new platform which caused for billions of dollars loss in market-cap across the sector (Transports) whilst also having caused one of the worst historic spreads between Transports & Utilities in history:

And with the AI-disruption trade being in the forefront of the market’s focus, the rotation toward Value over Growth remained & the gap between the group has now widened to nearly 12% on the year:

With that being said, given the large YTD outperformance of Value over Growth (12%), the growing question into the coming months boils down to whether or not this recent trend is a lasting one (IWN/IWF Breakout) & or if it instead proves to be another ‘fakeout’ as its done so in prior instances:

And again, in terms of why this period of Value over Growth outperformance has amplified more recently?

Well, the markets are pricing-in an ongoing economic re-acceleration.

The prior week to this past week for instance, the ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 52.6 which essentially is the highest level reached since January ’22:

Moving along, looking back at this past week, Manufacturing Payrolls posted their first gain since November ‘24:

And in regard to the January Nonfarm Payrolls report, jobs came in at 130K vs. 65K expected, alongside an unemployment rate of 4.3% vs. 4.4% expected. Again, the beat reinforces that after a brief wobble in ‘25, the labor market is stabilizing rather than continuing to undergo a slowdown hence the continued pricing-in of an economic re-acceleration:

And lastly, the chart below emphasizes the point that the recent labor market / economic re-acceleration has really just started after coming out of the late ‘25 Q4 slowdown mostly driven by the government shutdown:

And as we’ve touched on these last few weeks but in regard to the pricing-in of an economic re-acceleration, of the 5 best performing sectors YTD, 3 of them are Cyclical (Was 4 prior but the recent rally in bonds has fueled outperformance amongst Utes thus taking the #5 spot):

- Energy (Cyclical)

- Materials (Cyclical)

- Staples (Defensive)

- Industrials (Cyclical)

- Utilities (Defensive)

And as a result, it’s led to quite the broadening of upside participation as despite Spooz being just over 230bps off the highs, the Advance-Decline Line has continued to churn and make higher-highs:

With that being said, despite the broadening of upside participation along with the continued higher-highs within the Advance-Decline Index, the % of Stocks Above the 20D still remains more neutral (Instead of overbought & or oversold) as it currently sits at 48% which is mostly attributed to the vast single stock volatility:

And similar can be said on a more broader timeframe as well as there is still 55% of stocks remaining above the 50D (Neutral Reading) despite the Nasdaq for example remaining below the 100D which just emphasizes the underlying dispersion within the markets:

However, the Fear-Greed Index, instead of pointing toward a market that remains within neutral territory, has made its way back into fear territory despite the continued broadening of breadth and new highs within the Advance-Decline Index. This again circles back to the amount of dispersion within the market, along with elevated single-stock volatility, despite the indices sitting near their respective highs. We’ve essentially had Liberation Day–style volatility among single names whilst the indices themselves are hardly off their highs:

And finally, in respect to positioning, despite Spooz having pulled back only about 2% from all-time highs, Goldman’s U.S. equity sentiment indicator has already slipped back into negative territory. Considering the persistent calls of market exuberance and bubble conditions, sentiment and positioning remain far removed from levels typically associated with true market euphoria.

Subscribe now

Read more

To kick the recap off, it’s been a relatively quieter week on the index level, although under-the-hood, there’s been plenty of volatility within single names, similar action to this past week, as the dispersion once again continues. With that being said, it’s been a quieter week with respect to economic data, although of the data reported, it’s been another week of much better-than-feared data as the ongoing pricing-in of an economic re-acceleration continues to take place (Outperformance Amongst Cyclicals).

Nevertheless, despite the large and continued factor rotations and unwinds, the Q’s as of now are the best performing of the indices on the week, currently higher by just over 40bps, whereas small-caps are the worst performing of the indices, yet are only lower by 20bps on the week, essentially flat.

For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:

And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:

I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.

The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.

Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.

And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.

Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).

For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:

• General background / knowledge on all option strategies

• In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

• Options Structuring

• When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

• Choosing expiration dates

• Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

• General briefing on stock gaps

• What to look for in regards to fundamentals

• Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

• Hedging

• Creating risk/reward setups

• Taking profits / managing losses

• Overall Process

• Book recommendations

A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .

Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.

And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.

‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’

To jump straight into it, the general theme of the week, thus far, has been a continued rotation toward Value over Growth which has essentially been the trend all year although it does seem like the spread between the two groups is nearing a ‘pause’ given the gap between the two groups has grown quite wide in such a short period of time, 10% to be exact.

With that being said, given the YTD outperformance of Value over Growth, the growing question into the coming months boils down to whether or not this recent trend is a lasting one (IWN/IWF Breakout) & or if it instead proves to be another ‘fakeout’ as its done so in prior instances:

And again, why has this period of Value over Growth outperformance been amplified more recently?

Well, the markets are pricing-in an ongoing economic re-acceleration.

Last week for instance, the ISM Manufacturing Index jumped to 52.6 which essentially is the highest level reached since January ’22: