How Have Things Done?
I started this substack just over 7 months ago. Markets have been a rollercoaster in-between with the ups / downs, and plenty of extremes in between. I have done quite a few individual write-ups on themes that I thought presented an opportunity at the given moment, along with just general trade ideas / market commentary in which I publish 3X a week. Below is a look of how the individual write-ups have done in terms of the names included in the write-ups comparatively to the markets. Let’s take a look below.
- Migrant Crisis, link
The migrant crisis was an opportunity I saw back in late September / Early October. I don’t think too much needs to be said… issues continue to get worse with December being a record month in terms of an influx of immigrants coming across the border totaling out to 302,000. With it being an election year, this theme likely only continues to heighten as the border situation continues to get worse & this being a clear political issue that has yet to have been resolved. One upcoming bigger catalyst for the group being the border crisis funding bill along with most of the names in general thriving under heightened political circumstances, especially as it narrows down and we get closer to elections.
- Under-performers to Potential Out-performers, link
Under-performers to Potential Out-performers was timely written & allocated too towards the end of October… idea was essentially going long names that under-performed due to the concentration in ‘23 that we saw with particular names leading to many good names coming under continuous pressure all year thus leading to this opportunity. Many thought I was quite crazy, and it wasn’t necessarily easy going long some of these names back at the end of October given the way things looked… but big money is made fading big extremes… turned out to be quite timely.
- Change for Argentina, link
The one and only Javier Milei…
At the end of November, Javier was elected president. Immediately, thought this was an opportunity to get long Argentina equities given how pivotal of a change this was and that is was likely to be received very well by Argentina stocks… a shoot first ask questions later type of setup. Turned out quite well as you can see below… included a wide variety of sectors to really be diversified and capture all aspects & it has led to this huge relative outperformance comparatively to U.S. indices since.
- Gold / Silver Potential Fat Pitch, link
Gold / Silver fat pitch…
Slightly down since allocating to and has been quite a volatile basket given some of the names have a good bit of beta. Relative to gold, the basket of names has just slightly underperformed… mostly due to that factor of beta. Is ‘24 the year the metals shine? We will find out soon enough but the setup is there… between the Fed reiterating real rates need to come down… rate cuts… even the potential of inflation resurgence… Fed raising the inflation target… Geopolitical issues… tightening cycle over… there seems to be a lot of potential tailwinds this year for the metals to finely shine & it should be an interesting year for the basket as a whole.
The Year Ahead, link
Relative performance from year ahead names comparatively to Spooz… underperforming thus far as majority of the gains from this year have come from the Semis & MAG 7, EX- Tesla…
Has been just over a month since publishing the year ahead… excited to see where everything shakes out towards the end of the year as I do personally think the basket of names is poised to do well this year.
Lastly, since starting this substack, there also has been a # of trade ideas, both winners and losers, but a current hit rate of 77.2%. Relative overall performance of everything together including trade ideas / tactical ideas / baskets is 29.71%, comparatively to Spooz which is up 13.88%, QQQ which is up 19.26%, IWM which is up 9.70%, and DIA which is up 14.48%.
2024 is shaping up to be nothing short of an exciting year. I appreciate you all for the support and am looking forward to the rest of 2024 with you all. I wish you all a healthy and successful rest of 2024.