Hello All,
Jumping straight into it, the indices have posted quite the rebound, more specifically the Q’s, especially following the sharp drawdown after having briefly made a new all-time high a few weeks back. The majority of the strength has partly been attributed to continued hopes of a resolution within the Middle East as we narrow down into midterms, whereas for Tech specifically, Anthropic’s S1 was much better than feared, along with a few Tech earnings having posted all-around strong #’s, helping to ignite a bit of positive sentiment into risk as markets regain confidence in the durability of the AI infrastructure trade.
And on the week, the Q’s are the best performing of the indices, higher by just over 300bps, whereas the Dow is the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, although still sits higher by just over 60bps, again, mostly attributed to the rebound within Growth / Momentum & the shift away from Value-oriented / Lower-volatility groups.
For anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the recap, in taking a look at the week thus far, again, the general theme of the week has been a rebound within Momentum & Growth factors, hence the Q’s are the best performing of the indices on the week, whereas instead, we’ve seen a shift away from Value-oriented / Lower-volatility groups, again, naturally due to the positive sentiment shift toward risk and away from the recent defensive tone that equities have undergone over these last few weeks.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers within the last week:
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets within the last week have been:
Moving along, the pickup in upside participation has continued alongside the recent rebound in Tech, which, as a result, has helped drive a continued recovery in the % of stocks above the 20D, now sitting at 55%, essentially back within neutral territory & having entirely worked off the oversold conditions seen just a couple of weeks back.
That said, on a broader timeframe, the % of stocks above the 50D sits at just 41%, which is still slightly within oversold territory, although certainly not as extreme as a few weeks back & is now slowly beginning to encroach back into neutral territory, of course, assuming the recent pickup in breadth / upside participation actually sticks.
Nevertheless, the anomaly continues to be the Fear & Greed Index, which still sits firmly within ‘Fear’ territory, although it has finally worked its way out of ‘Extreme Fear.’ And all of this is occurring with the S&P sitting just 120bps off all-time highs, although, of course, there has been a significant under-the-hood ‘reset’ amid the deterioration in breadth that has taken place throughout October (although we’re finally seeing improvement), so it does make sense that we’re still within ‘Fear’ territory, even though the indices have generally hardly corrected off their highs.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
