Channeling Greenspan
Hello All,
Jumping straight into it, despite the back-and-forth geopolitical headlines, it’s been a quieter week as the indices have mostly been undergoing a digestion period following the historic 2-week rally stretch.
On the week, the Q’s remain the best performing index, currently higher by just under 100bps, whereas the remaining indices are all trading in line with each other, up roughly 10-25bps on the week, or in other words, essentially flat.
For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the recap, on the week thus far, after an initial bout of outperformance from Value, Growth is once again leading, with the spread between the two groups now sitting at just under 80bps on the week:
Although year-to-date, the spread between Value and Growth still sits just over 6%, yet has narrowed from the prior highs near 14%:
And in respect to factor performance on the week thus far, Momentum along with Growth are leading the way, whereas Low Volatility and Value remain the underperformers:
Moving along, with this recent digestion period across the indices over the last few days, we’ve seen conditions ease slightly from more extreme overbought levels, but with roughly 75% of stocks still trading above their 20D, this still remains near the upper end of the five-year range and continues to signal shorter-term overbought conditions:
Although on a broader timeframe, while overbought, conditions are still only modestly overbought rather than extreme, with the percentage of stocks above the 50D currently sitting at 65%:
And following the recent historic 2-week stretch, markets remain within ‘Greed’ territory after having oscillated within ‘Extreme Fear’ & ‘Fear’ territory for practically the last two months:
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
