Continued Complacency
Hello All,
To jump straight into it, it’s generally been a quieter week on both the economic and geopolitical fronts following Trump’s decision not to follow through with an escalation against Iran, which helped tame bonds and ultimately aided in bottoming the indices earlier in the week. For now, the week has largely been characterized by a bit of a post-OPEX “hangover” following some unwinding in crowded longs and shorts, alongside the recent rise in the 10Y & uptick in bond volatility.
That said, in terms of index performance, the Dow has been the strongest performer of the group, currently higher by just shy of 100bps on the week, whereas Spooz has been the ‘worst’ performer, although still sits higher by 28bps on the week.
For anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the recap, in looking at the week thus far, with the Dow being the best performing of the major indices on the week, in respect to factor performance, it’s not much of a surprise to see Low Volatility along with Value being among the strongest performing factors on the week, whereas on the opposing side, although essentially flat overall, Growth has been the weakest performing factor thus far.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, despite the indices sitting just shy of ATHs, upside participation in general has remained fairly lackluster, which can be seen in the fact that just 43% of stocks remain above the 20D. In the shorter-term, this isn’t signaling a market that’s particularly overbought at all, but rather one that has started to drift toward shorter-term oversold territory.
Although on a broader timeframe, the picture does look a tad healthier, with 55% of stocks still sitting above the 50D, which again, isn’t signaling particularly overbought conditions either and instead remains a much more neutral reading. Ultimately, it just further emphasizes that the most recent leg of this rally has been considerably narrower in respect to overall upside participation.
And although the major indices remain just shy of ATHs and have been on a record run since the lows made in late March, markets still only sit marginally within ‘Greed’ territory and have yet to reach ‘Extreme Greed.’ In fact, following this recent wobble, sentiment has already started to work its way back toward neutral territory once again, as markets still remain far away from true ‘euphoria’ or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major interim tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
