Pop or Just a Blip?
Hello All,
To jump straight into it, it’s been a quieter week on the economic data front, but at the index level, this week has mostly been characterized by a follow-through of last week’s momentum unwind & after an initial attempt to rally earlier in the week, that move quickly faded, and on the week, Small Caps have been the best performing of the major indices, while the rest are all trading roughly in line with each other, down around 160bps on the week.
For anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the recap, in looking at the week thus far, despite the weak index-level action, under the hood, upside participation has actually been quite strong, with the majority of factors positive on the week and Growth being the only factor currently in negative territory. Meanwhile, Small Cap Value and Private Equity have been among the best-performing factors on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, although there’s been a violent momentum unwind within Tech, given other pockets of the market have been lifted up as liquidity has dispersed elsewhere outside of the AI trade, upside participation in general has picked up by quite the margin & as a result, 49% of stocks still remain above the 20D despite the Q’s being in roughly an 8% drawdown and even Spooz sitting in nearly a 5% drawdown.
And similar can be said on a more broader timeframe, although this week, we have seen a slight deterioration but as of now, 50% of stocks still remain above the 50D, which isn’t necessarily an overbought & or oversold reading & instead still paints a more neutral picture.
That said, despite indices being just off the highs & the Q’s being within a mild correction, the Fear-Greed Index has already made its way back into ‘fear’ territory & is quickly encroaching on ‘extreme fear’ territory; again, emphasizing that markets still remain far from ‘true euphoria’ or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major interim tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
