Hello All,
Hope you’re all enjoying the weekend & have been able to get some time away from the screens.
Jumping straight into it, in looking back at this past week, the biggest ‘factor’ was that the bond selloff finally came to a pause as the 10Y continued to stall out near 5.3%, whereas towards the latter half of the week, we finally saw some rotational action following a pickup in breadth, in part due to the halt in the bond selloff & then secondly, due to a couple of negative AI-related headlines which caused a bit of an unwind in tech, therefore allowing capital to disperse elsewhere within markets.
That said, Spooz ended up being the best-performing of the indices on the week whilst also having finally made a new all-time high, closing higher by just over 110bps, whereas Small caps were the worst performer, having closed lower by just over 90bps, although they did post quite the rebound off the midweek lows.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data, it’s a bigger week ahead with both CPI & PPI #’s being reported midweek, which of course will aid in the Fed’s decision on whether to hike again or instead shift to a pause & wait and see how the data comes in from here. Otherwise, we just have a few minor economic datapoints in between, such as retail sales, along with Warsh expected to speak later on.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 209.61% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 113.90% / Spooz has returned 87.78% / Dow has returned 61.41% & Small-caps have returned 60.30%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 27.13% return on realized gains / winners & a 14.88% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in looking back at this past week, we ended up seeing a slight shift away from Growth / Momentum, which ended up being some of the worst performing factors, whereas lower-volatility & value-oriented groups ended up being the best performing factors as the market caught a bit of a rotation / breadth expansion following the halt in the bond selloff..
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
2. Mission Critical Security Stack
4. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
5. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, following the slight pickup in participation this past week, with equal-weight Spooz, for example, having posted a rebound, the % of stocks above the 20D bounced back toward 38%, which is still within oversold territory, although it is slowly starting to work its way back toward neutral.
Although on the other hand, on a broader timeframe, the % of stocks above the 50D remains depressed & sits at 28%, which is still within oversold territory, although not quite at the ‘extreme’ readings we saw during Liberation Day and or other prior instances.
That said, following the slight pickup in participation, along with Spooz & the Nasdaq yet again going on to make new all-time highs, the Fear-Greed Index worked its way out of ‘Fear’ territory & back into ‘Neutral’ territory.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
