Hello All,
Hope you’re all enjoying the weekend & have been able to get some time away from the screens.
Jumping straight into it, after an initially quieter start to the week, volatility kicked in midweek following a slightly hotter-than-expected CPI report, which essentially triggered a VaR shock in which the dollar & bonds caught flight-to-safety bids, as did defensives, whereas everything else was sold together.
That said, the other driving factor was likely forced deleveraging, similar to back in July during the Situational Awareness blowup. Hence, the Q’s were the worst-performing of the indices on the week, having closed lower by just over 550bps, whereas the Dow was the best performer following the continued rotation to Value over Growth & actually managed to close higher on the week by just over 50bps.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead, with just a few minor datapoints, including the standard claims report on Thursday & then PMIs on Friday, but otherwise, focus into the upcoming week will continue to shift toward earnings as that starts to pick up.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 200.4% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 102.12% / Spooz has returned 84.08% / Dow has returned 62.34% & Small-caps have returned 55.41%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.5% win rate, averaging a 27.13% return on realized gains / winners & a 14.58% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in taking a look back at this past week, again, the general theme on the week was a continued rotation toward value-oriented / lower-volatility groups, whereas following the continued deleveraging amongst Tech, momentum, along with growth, ended up being the worst-performing factors on the week.
That said, despite the carnage in the indices this past week, under the hood, we’re starting to see a slight improvement in general participation, whereas the ‘generals,’ otherwise known as Tech (really just the Mag-7), finally started to get hit this past week. However, the % of stocks above the 20D actually rebounded higher & now sits at 40%, which is still slightly within oversold territory but is slowly starting to encroach on neutral territory.
That said, on a broader timeframe, the % of stocks above the 50D sits at 28%, which is instead firmly in oversold territory & is even starting to slowly work its way toward a more ‘extreme’ oversold reading.
And on top of the above, despite Spooz sitting just 230bps off all-time highs, the Fear-Greed Index has worked its way into ‘Extreme Fear’ territory, again emphasizing just how significant the under-the-hood ‘reset’ has been amid the recent deterioration in breadth, with even the ‘generals’ now starting to get dragged lower as well.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
