Hello All,
Jumping straight into it, in looking back at this past week, it was yet another mixed bag across the board, with once again, the central focus continuing to remain on the bleed out in bonds as the 10Y continues its parabolic rise, whereas on the positive side, economic data actually provided a bit of relief for the Fed, with both PCE & NFP #’s coming in on the softer side.
But yet again, the Nasdaq continued to lead the way, having closed at a new all-time high on Friday & +65bps to round out the week, whereas the Dow continued its losing streak & was the worst performing of the indices, having closed lower by 125bps to round out the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s a quieter one ahead, with just a couple of scattered bond auctions & then, just on Monday, PMI & ISM #’s as more minor datapoints but otherwise, the question into the upcoming week is: does the recent bond selloff continue & or do we finally see a bit of a pause / exhaustion?
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 210.8% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 113.37% / Spooz has returned 85.63% / Dow has returned 59.84% & Small-caps have returned 61.78%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 27.16% return on realized gains / winners & a 14.88% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in looking back at this past week, yet again, the strength was mostly driven by Tech-related names, hence the markets having been led by the Nasdaq on the week, whilst also having made & closed at a new all-time high. And in turn, both the Growth & Momentum factors ended up being the best performing groups on the week, whereas Value-oriented & Lower-volatility were the underperforming groups on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
3. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
4. Mission Critical Security Stack
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, the interesting factor as of late continues to be just how resilient the indices have been on the upside in the face of a continued selloff in duration, but the deterioration has more so been reflected under-the-hood, as breadth has continued to collapse & as of now, just 30% of stocks remain above the 20D, which is quite an oversold reading, although it isn’t necessarily an ‘extreme’ oversold reading yet.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as in the medium-term, the % of stocks above the 50D has fallen toward 27%, which, again, is an oversold reading that is slowly starting to encroach on a more ‘extreme’ oversold reading.
And on top of the above, despite Spooz sitting just 100bps off all-time highs, the Fear-Greed Index has worked its way firmly into ‘fear’ territory & is slowly encroaching on ‘extreme fear,’ but this once again emphasizes that under-the-hood, we’ve seen quite the ‘reset,’ given the recent deterioration in breadth followed by the recent rise in the 10Y.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
