Hello All,
Hope you’re all enjoying the weekend & have been able to get some time away from the screens.
Jumping straight into it, this past week, headline-wise, was an eventful one, with CPI #’s having come in hotter-than-expected, which in turn sparked additional hawkish commentary out of the Fed. Then, as we all know, Jensen formally stepped down as CEO of Nvidia following the recent accusations & scandals, which in turn has created worries within Tech, given Nvidia has essentially been the ‘bank of AI.’
That said, following the prior week’s downside volatility, this week we saw both upside & downside volatility, with the Q’s at one point having traded higher on the week by just under 6.5% before ultimately closing out the week higher by just over 3.5%, making them the best-performing of the indices, whereas Small Caps turned out to be the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, yet still closed higher on the week by 1.4%.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
Looking ahead into the upcoming week, in terms of economic data, it’s generally a lighter week ahead, with Warsh expected to speak on Monday, then followed by retail sales on Tuesday, but otherwise, there are just a few other minor & sporadic data points in the latter half of the week, so it should be quieter on that end.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 196.6% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 93.60% / Spooz has returned 81.94% / Dow has returned 63.64% & Small-caps have returned 59.49%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 79.8% win rate, averaging a 27.14% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.14% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, we finally saw a ‘slight’ end to the rotation of Value over Growth, as both Momentum along with Growth finished within the positive on the week, whereas Value & Quality, two defensive areas in which individuals have been hiding out in, finished negative, BUT lower-volatility groups finished within the positive too alongside Growth, so still not necessarily entirely a ‘big’ risk-on week & more or less a much-anticipated rebound given how oversold Tech / Growth were.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers within the last week:
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets within the last week have been:
Moving along, despite the rebound within the indices this past week, the % of stocks above the 20D didn’t necessarily budge much & essentially closed out the week flat at 48%, which is still a neutral reading rather than signaling overbought & or oversold conditions.
That said, on a broader timeframe, the % of stocks above the 50D did post a slight rebound higher toward 45% from 42% the prior week, which is also essentially within neutral territory rather than signaling overbought & or oversold conditions.
Nevertheless, in looking at the Fear & Greed Index, we did see some relief this past week as the index moved out of ‘Extreme Fear’ to instead ‘Fear,’ which, considering the rebound within the indices, felt pretty standard of a move… the question from here being whether or not this recent rebound is a dead cat bounce before another flush takes place and or if instead the indices form a higher low here before resuming upward into year-end.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
