The Week Ahead 1/25/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful ‘26 ahead.
Looking back at this past week, despite the lack of economic data & general event risk on the shortened trading week, the week initially kicked off with the U.S. (Trump Administration) issuing threats (Tariffs) against the EU in order to secure Greenland & as a result, it triggered a ‘Sell all U.S. assets’ day in which equities were sold, bonds were sold, & last but not least, the dollar was sold but just 2-days later, tensions were relieved as Trump stated the U.S. wouldn’t try to ‘take Greenland with force’ & the initial deadline of the February 1st tariffs on the EU were cancelled as well.
With that being said, despite the initial headline volatility, the indices ended up closing out the week on a quiet note:
The Nasdaq ended up being the ‘best’ performing of the indices, yet only closed higher by just over 20bps, whereas the remaining indices closed slightly lower on the week with the Dow having been the ‘worst’ performing of the indices yet only closed lower by just over 60bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, it’s yet another quieter week ahead with just FOMC expected to take place on Wednesday along with a few sporadic datapoints in between such as the standard jobless claims report & last but not least, PPI #’s on Friday as well.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 190.17% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 76.72% / Spooz has returned 64.94% / Dow has returned 51.93% & Small-caps have returned 51.15%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.4% win rate, averaging a 27.09% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.25% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success as we kick off ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Looking back at this past week, as we briefly mentioned earlier but the week initially kicked off with U.S. / EU tensions following the disagreement by the EU of not approving & or initially wanting to make a deal for Greenland with the U.S. but just 2-days following, Trump stated that the U.S. will not take Greenland by force, thus reducing overall aggression fears, whilst also deciding to remove the initial February 1st tariff deadline threat on the EU to ultimately try & work out a deal & or framework in which both the U.S. & the EU are satisfied.
With that being said, despite the scattered headline noise throughout the week, the more interesting development emerged midweek as the market began rotating back toward growth over value. Coming into the week, there had been nearly a 6% performance gap between the two groups (Growth & Value), with most of the relative outperformance YTD having been driven by cyclicals and “real economy” exposure more broadly whereas toward the latter part of the week, we started to see a shift toward Tech & Mag-7 which has been a relative under-performer for the last few months.
Question of the matter into the next few weeks is if the recent underlying dynamic of Value over Growth outperformance continues thus leading to a breakout within IWN/IWF & or if this was just another shorter-term blip of relative outperformance before markets then rotate right back toward growth:
With that being said, as the year has kicked off, the shift & rotation toward cyclicals & or ‘real economy’ names has been standout across a broad set of sectors:
RSP at ATHs:
Small-Caps at ATHs & Emerging from a 4-Year Base:
Transports at ATHs:
Commodities emerging out of 3+ year base:
And in regard to broad sub-sector performance, cyclicals & or ‘real economy’ groups have dominated thus far YTD:
Materials (Cyclical)
Energy (Cyclical)
Staples (Non-cyclical / Defensive)
Industrials (Cyclical)
Transports (Cyclical)
4/5 top performing sectors YTD are all cyclical:
General point being, despite the perceived ‘lackluster’ action amongst the indices (Spooz & the Q’s), besides Small-Caps YTD, capital has instead just flowed elsewhere (S&P 493), which has driven quite the uplift in breadth & overall upside participation, which is made clear, as shown below, given the churn & steady climb higher within the ADV-DECL Line, despite Spooz, for instance, having essentially been flat since late October of ‘25:
With that being said, despite the overall lackluster price action within the indices, again, overall breadth has still continued to remain quite strong as the % of Stocks above the 20D for example still sits at 62%:
And even on a more broader timeframe, the % of stocks above the 50d sits at 66% as well which is generally a signal of a healthier market in relation to upside participation (Peak in last 5-years was December ‘23 near 85% following Powell’s initial signal that the Fed was ready to move toward a rate-cut cycle):
Having said that, despite the broadening out of upside participation amongst the indices, the Fear-Greed index still doesn’t remain as enthusiastic as it currently sits within ‘neutral’ territory:
How can that possibly be considering how well so many sectors are performing YTD? Well again, the Nasdaq hasn’t made a new high since October ‘25 & Spooz as well has essentially been rangebound for the last 4-months & adding to that point even further, the Mag-7 for instance were essentially as oversold as the Liberation Day lows in April of ‘25:
And to add on to this point further, Goldman’s U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits just barely within positive territory & remains far from stretched which emphasizes a market still filled with upside complacency:
