The Week Ahead 2/22/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful ‘26 ahead.
Looking back at this past week, despite the initial U.S.-Iran headline noise, it ended up being a relatively choppier yet slightly positive upside week as the single-stock volatility (dispersion) from the week prior finally started to subside & on the week, the Q’s ended up being the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by just over 110bps, whereas the Dow was of the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, having essentially closed flat (Higher by just 16bps on the week).
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead as there isn’t necessarily too much economic data of significance although on Friday, we do have PPI #’s but besides that, we just have a few sporadic datapoints in between & arguably the more important datapoint will be Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 183.23% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 72.77% / Spooz has returned 64.99% / Dow has returned 53.52% & Small-caps have returned 51.04%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.8% win rate, averaging a 27.99% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.34% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, to take a look back at this past week, although the theme year-to-date has been a continued rotation toward Value over Growth, we finally saw a slight outperformance of Growth over Value this past week as tides are *potentially starting to shift.
Although again, on the broader picture for ‘26, Value has still drastically outperformed Growth as the gap between the group still sits just over 11% on the year:
With that being said, an interesting factor we highlighted this past week that we felt was worth reiterating is the magnitude of the recent underperformance of mega-caps relative to the broader S&P 500, with the 12-period rate of change in the $OEX:$SPX ratio currently sitting around -1.37%. Historically, readings near these levels have tended to coincide with the later stages of mega-cap underperformance rather than the beginning, often marking points where the rotation begins to stabilize or mean-revert as leadership broadens. While not a precise timing tool, this degree of relative weakness has, more often than not, signaled that much of the de-crowding in mega-caps has already occurred, suggesting the rotation may be closer to exhaustion than acceleration if broader market conditions remain supportive. Nvidia’s earnings this week will be particularly important in this context, as they could serve as a near-term catalyst for whether mega-cap leadership stabilizes or reasserts itself, especially if results & guidance reinforce the durability of AI-driven demand.
And adding to the point above, IWN/IWF (Value over Growth), while up roughly 23% since bottoming in mid-’25, is now approaching the ’20 lows / ’24 highs. As a result, if there were to be a reversal or at least a near-term snapback in the recent Value-over-Growth trend, we’re likely getting fairly close, even if IWN/IWF ultimately continues to head higher over the medium term.
And again, in terms of why this period of Value-over-Growth outperformance amplified these last couple of weeks, the biggest factor has been due to the continued pricing-in of an ongoing economic re-acceleration.
What kicked this off a few weeks back, or at least amplified it, was the ISM Manufacturing Index jumping to 52.6, marking the highest reading since January ’22. A move back into expansion territory reinforced the narrative of an economic re-acceleration which tends to favor value, cyclicals, & smaller caps, thus helping explain the recent momentum behind the Value-over-Growth rotation.
And since then, momentum around an economic re-acceleration has continued to build, as the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index once again reinforced that narrative, with business activity improving to the highest level since September ‘25, essentially right before the government went into a shutdown that caused a temporary slowdown ahead of this recent Q1 re-acceleration.
And jobless claims have also continued to reinforce this re-acceleration backdrop, as although we remain in a low-hire, low-fire labor regime, claims have stayed remarkably stable in the low 200k range, signaling employment stability without the kind of labor market tightness that would typically reaccelerate inflation (‘Goldilocks’ backdrop).
And as we’ve touched on these last few weeks but in regard to the pricing-in of an economic re-acceleration (Value-over-Growth), of the 5 best performing sectors YTD, the top 3 are Cyclical:
- Energy (Cyclical)
- Materials (Cyclical)
- Industrials (Cyclical)
- Staples (Defensive)
- Utilities (Defensive)
As a result, despite the recent whipsaw action along with Spooz being just over 120bps off ATHs, the Advance-Decline Line has still continued to churn & make higher-highs:
With that being said, despite the broadening of upside participation along with the continued higher-highs within the Advance-Decline Index, the % of Stocks Above the 20D still remains more neutral (Instead of overbought & or oversold) as it currently sits at 54% which is mostly attributed to the recent vast single stock volatility:
And similar can be said on a more broader timeframe as there is still 56% of stocks remaining above the 50D (Neutral Reading) despite the Nasdaq for example remaining below the 100D (Not far above the 200D either) which just emphasizes the recent dispersion within the markets:
However, contrary to the above and or despite the neutral signals implied by the continued broadening in upside participation, the Fear-Greed Index remains within fear territory & this comes even as market breadth continues to improve & the Advance–Decline Index pushes to new highs, once again highlighting the degree of dispersion across the market.
And adding to the point above, the chart below from BofA reinforces the view of broader ‘fear’ as we recently saw near-historic levels of outflows, with the latest reading marking the third-largest outflow since records began in ‘08. Again, this is not what you typically see in a market characterized by bullish exuberance; instead, it points to a market built on a significant amount of skepticism & upside complacency rather than euphoria.
And the chart below from GS reiterates the same underlying dynamic, as we’ve seen one of the sharpest declines in gross leverage among U.S. long/short funds:
And finally, before we jump into the remainder of the week ahead, one last chart worth highlighting is just how heavily positioned S&P 500 investors are for downside, with put delta sitting at extreme bearish levels. In essence, this reflects a market that is well hedged and characterized by fear rather than upside complacency. Historically, conditions like this are far more consistent with skepticism and late-stage de-risking than with the type of bullish exuberance typically seen at major market peaks.
