The Week Ahead 4/12/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, the big news was the ceasefire reached between the U.S. & Iran, which in turn led to a sharp rally across the indices, with the Q’s being the best performer, closing higher by 444bps, whereas the Dow was among the ‘worst’ performing, yet still closed higher by just over 300bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead, with the only standout datapoint being PPI #’s on Tuesday, along with a few other minor datapoints scattered throughout the week.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 180.12% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 73.63% / Spooz has returned 63.05% / Dow has returned 49.41% & Small-caps have returned 48.82%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.9% win rate, averaging a 28.32% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, despite the sharp rally in the indices following the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the spread between Growth & Value remained relatively contained, at just around an 80bps spread.
But on the year, the spread between Growth and Value has continued to widen, although has narrowed slightly more recently but still sits at just over 11%, down from 14%:
And another look in respect to factor performance but on the week, Momentum along with Spin-offs were among the best performing groups whereas Low-volatility & Private Equity were among the worst performing factors on the week:
That being said, following the large rally within the indices on the week, in the shorter-term, markets have quickly shifted from oversold to encroaching overbought as the % of stocks above the 20D currently sits at 68% after being below 20% just the other week:
Although on a more broader timeframe, the overall picture still leans more neutral in respect to readings as just 50% of stocks currently remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes a market that has worked out of oversold territory, but on a broader timeframe general conditions still lean more neutral, whereas in the shorter-term as we mentioned just above, are encroaching overbought territory:
And what’s even more interesting is despite the recent sharp snapback within the indices, the fear-greed index still remains in ‘fear’ territory despite Spooz for example being just 220bps off all-time highs.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
And with that being said, last week’s ceasefire certainly caught many off guard as leading up into April, in March, we saw the largest net selling in over a decade and among the most aggressive since ‘11, while hedge funds were net sellers for a fourth straight month, cutting exposure at the fastest pace in 13-years:
And at the same time, funds have held onto high-conviction longs whilst aggressively hedging through index and ETF shorts, pushing macro short exposure to the highest levels since COVID:
And more notably, hedge funds have aggressively increased short exposure, pushing their long/short ratio to the most bearish level on record, even exceeding the extremes seen during the Liberation Day selloff:
And on the argument that individuals were long and simply hoping for a ceasefire, that certainly wasn’t the case, and even despite the rally last week, there still wasn’t much re-grossing, as equity positioning remains well into underweight territory, although it did tick slightly higher this past week:
Another graphic emphasizing this dynamic, whilst also including earnings consensus, which has continued to tick higher despite the volatility, whereas again, equity positioning remains well into underweight territory:
And lastly, from McElligott, we’ve had a very ‘overhedged’ market, and as the charts show below, the market was under-hedged for the right tail and over-hedged for the left tail, which again emphasizes that not many individuals were positioned for a ceasefire, and if the upside action continues, given positioning dynamics, it could certainly force a chase and re-grossing as individuals worry about underperforming the benchmark and missing a Liberation Day–type rally off the lows.
