The Week Ahead 4/19/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, and really the past two weeks, it’s been a historic stretch to say the least, as markets have continued to rally in a vicious manner, practically for the entirety of the stretch with the Nasdaq closing higher for 13 consecutive days, following the continued easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with growing cooperation with Israel progressing toward a ceasefire with Lebanon.
That said, on the week, the Q’s were the best performing index, rallying just over 600bps, whereas the Dow was the ‘worst’ performer, yet still closed higher by just over 300bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, it’s yet another quiet week ahead, with really the only data of ‘significance’ being retail sales on Tuesday, along with a few other minor sporadic datapoints in between, but otherwise, it’s a relatively quiet week ahead.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 191.39% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 84.37% / Spooz has returned 70.41% / Dow has returned 53.46% & Small-caps have returned 57.69%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 82% win rate, averaging a 28.44% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, following the sharp and continued rally within the indices, we saw quite the unwind in the Value/Growth trade, with Growth outperforming Value on the week by just over 400bps:
Although year-to-date, the spread between Value and Growth still sits just over 7%, yet has narrowed from the prior highs near 14%:
And in respect to factor performance but on the week, IPOs along with Private equity were among the best performing groups whereas Low-volatility & High-yield were among the worst performing factors on the week:
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
5. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
Whereas on the flip side, the worst-performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, following the large rally in the indices on the week, markets have quickly shifted from oversold to overbought, as the percentage of stocks above the 20D currently sits at 83% after being below 20% just a couple of weeks back:
Although on a broader timeframe, while overbought, conditions are more modestly overbought rather than extreme, with the percentage of stocks above the 50D currently sitting at 69%:
And following the recent historic 2-week stretch, markets have finally worked their way into ‘Greed’ territory after having oscillated within ‘Extreme Fear’ and ‘Fear’ territory for practically the last two months:
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P (Yet again, Extreme Fear Marked the Low):
