The Week Ahead 4/5/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, after initially declining earlier in the week, the decline ended up marking the bottom in the indices before a rally ensued through the remainder of the week as Trump stated the U.S. would leave the Middle East without the Strait of Hormuz opened, while marine traffic through Hormuz also started to pick up in the latter half of the week.
That being said, the Q’s ended up being the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by 397bps, whereas the Dow was among the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, yet still closed higher by just over 300bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, the most important release will be PCE on Thursday, given it is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, along with CPI on Friday, but besides that, we just have a few more minor scattered datapoints throughout the week as well.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 174.70% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 66.21% / Spooz has returned 57.38% / Dow has returned 44.41% & Small-caps have returned 43.69%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.9% win rate, averaging a 28.13% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.49% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
For those who may have missed, we published our ‘2026 Outlook’ which has a plethora of coverage on a wide range of topics / themes as ‘26 kicks off after coming off a strong ‘25 & for those whom would like to go back & read the report, I included it just below:
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before jumping into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, in terms of factor performance, Momentum ended up being the best performing group whereas High Dividend Yield & Low-Volatility ended up being the worst performing groups on the week:
And on the week, given the snapback rally within the indices, Growth ended up outperforming Value on the week with the spread between the two groups sitting just under 150bps:
Although on the year, the spread between Value and Growth has continued to widen, although slightly narrowed this past week with the spread between the two groups down to 12.5% from 14% the week prior:
Moving along, following the risk-on action & snapback within the indices this past week, we saw quite the rebound within the % of stocks above the 20D, which currently sits at 56% & more so highlights a market that, in the shorter term, has worked off recent oversold conditions & is back toward a more neutral stance:
Although on a more broader timeframe, a different story can be told as despite the rebound, only 34% of stocks remain above the 50D, which still emphasizes a market that remains oversold on a broader timeframe, although in the shorter term, has worked off recent extreme oversold conditions:
And continuing on that note, even with the indices having worked into corrective territory this past week, although with the recent snapback higher, Spooz is only down 6% from all-time highs, we still remain well into ‘extreme fear’ territory.
And just to add some historical context, here’s the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with Spooz:
That said, with March now behind us, positioning tells a much more extreme story than price action alone, as while performance was weak, flows were far worse, with global equities seeing the largest net selling in over a decade and among the most aggressive since ’11, while hedge funds were net sellers for a fourth straight month, cutting exposure at the fastest pace in 13 years.
And more notably, hedge funds have aggressively increased short exposure, pushing their long/short ratio to the most bearish level on record, even exceeding the extremes seen during the Liberation Day selloff.
And tying this into positioning more broadly, the message is reinforced by JPM’s positioning monitor as well, with the 4-week change in their U.S. Tactical Positioning Monitor reaching nearly -3z, marking one of the most bearish readings on record.
As shown in the chart below, moves of this magnitude have historically coincided with periods of extreme de-risking and forced selling, often aligning with or slightly preceding durable lows in the S&P.
