The Week Ahead 5/24/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Jumping straight into it, looking back at this past week, after an initial wobble earlier in the week following speculation that the U.S. may look to escalate against Iran, alongside the sharp rise in bond volatility, Trump ultimately decided not to follow through with the supposed planned attack, which practically marked the bottom for markets on the week & from there, indices continued rallying into the latter half of the week.
On the week, Small Caps ended up being the best performing index, closing higher by just over 270bps, largely attributed to the simmering down in bond volatility, which sparked a bit of rotation beneath the surface & meanwhile, Spooz ended up being the ‘worst’ performer of the major indices, yet still managed to close higher by 88bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, excluding geopolitics, again, it’s a shortened week given the holiday, but the biggest datapoint of the week is Thursday’s PCE print, which, as a reminder, is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation but outside of that, the week is relatively light, with only a handful of more minor & sporadic datapoints scattered throughout the week.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 192.39% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 103.89% / Spooz has returned 78.93% / Dow has returned 57.23% & Small-caps have returned 63.03%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.9% win rate, averaging a 29.34% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.73% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in taking a look at this past week, there was a bit of rotational activity underway in respect to a shift away from Growth and toward Value.
Excluding IPOs, Small-Cap Value alongside Low-Volatility and Quality ended up being among the best performing factors on the week, whereas Growth was the worst-performing factor and, at that, the only factor that actually closed the week negative as well.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, despite the indices having practically closed out this past week at ATHs, upside participation has still been a bit lackluster, although we did see an overall improvement this past week, which has more so been reflected in the jump within the % of Stocks Above the 20D, which has now made its way back to 51% (Neutral territory) after having previously fallen down to 35% in shorter-term ‘oversold’ territory.
And on a more broader timeframe, the overall picture looks a tad healthier too, with 57% of stocks remaining above the 50D, but still isn’t necessarily signaling overbought conditions either and instead remains a much more neutral reading.
Ultimately, it just further emphasizes that the most recent leg of this rally has been considerably narrower in respect to overall upside participation.
All the above being said, despite the major indices having essentially closed out this past week at ATHs as the record run off the late March lows continues, it’s been impressive to see the Fear-Greed Index remain relatively muted and even slowly inch back toward ‘Neutral’ out of ‘Greed’ territory, which more so emphasizes that markets still remain far away from true ‘euphoria’ or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
