The Week Ahead 6/1/25

Hello All,

I hope you all are enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & have had a good ‘25 thus far & I wish you all a successful remainder of Q2.

In regard to this past week, it was a bit sporadic as the week initially kicked off with Trump issuing a delay of the 50% tariff threat on the EU in which was originally set to be implemented on June 1st. Both the Trump administration and the EU came to terms and agreed to push the date back to July 9th to allow time for a potential deal to be worked out. Following the headline, indices gapped higher earlier on in the week, & into the remainder of the week, it was relatively choppy with lots of headline noise in between & about midweek, we received news of the Federal court attempting to block Trump’s policy, which has since been appealed & Trump’s tariff policies still remain in place… essentially, nothing has changed although courts are digging deeper into the situation to see if Trump’s tariffs do constitute as a national emergency.

The Q’s ended up being the best-performing of the indices this past week as they closed higher by 188bps whereas small-caps were the relative laggard although did still close higher on the week by 122bps.

- Economic Data for the Coming Week:

In regard to economic data into the upcoming week, it’s a fairly busy week in general as we have a plethora of jobs data ahead & most importantly, we have NFP #’s on Friday, which as of now, Jobs are expected to come in at 130k vs. 177k prior & the UER is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

Powell as well is expected to speak on Monday, although unlikely for anything new to be really said… Fed will continue to respect the dual mandate & remain on pause until there is further clarity on the current tariff overhang & or unless hard-data rolls over meaningfully.

Economic Calendar

- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Daily TF

- SPY

- QQQ

- IWM

- DJIA

Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 120.72% return whilst in the same period, the Q's have returned 46.79% / Spooz has returned 39.83% / Dow has returned 29.45% & Small-caps have returned 16.01%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.4% win rate, averaging a 21.54% return on realized gains / winners & a 14.48% loss on realized losses / losers.

Looking forward to the future as we continue to progress through ‘25.

About a month back, we wrote about hard assets & the structural framework behind hard assets given recent events & future outlook along with some historical perspective as well… you can check it out below for those whom may have missed.

We also published the follow up educational piece which has been highly requested and majority of the topics covered were all suggested by you all, so I hope you find good benefit.

For those who may have missed, a link to Educational Piece Part: Deux can be found here.

For those who may have missed the first educational piece, I included the range of topics covered below along with a link to the piece for those who would like to go back and read:

- General background / knowledge on all option strategies

- In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them

- Options Structuring

- When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads

- Choosing expiration dates

- Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones

- General briefing on stock gaps

- What to look for in regards to fundamentals

- Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade

- Hedging

- Creating risk/reward setups

- Taking profits / managing losses

- Overall Process

- Book recommendations

A link to the first educational write-up can be found here.