The Week Ahead 6/15/25
Hello All,
For starters, to all the Fathers & Husbands out there, I hope you all have a fantastic Father’s Day & know that you’re greatly appreciated. Fathers play a pivotal role & I hope today brings well-deserved recognition and celebration.
Looking back at the past week, it was a relatively muted stretch for the indices, though earlier on in the week gains reversed as tensions escalated in the Middle East between Israel and Iran in the latter part of the week & as the week rounded off, Spooz ended up closing lower by 36bps after initially trading higher by just over 100bps & the worst performing of the indices on the week were small-caps which closed lower by 142bps after initially trading higher by nearly 200bps earlier in the week, so quite the reversal in general off the highs.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
As we get ready to head into the upcoming week, it’s a relatively quieter week in regard to event risks & its a shortened week as well as markets will be closed on Thursday, but the biggest event of the week besides seeing how tensions develop between Israel & Iran is FOMC on Wednesday, granted, likely not much new will be said & then we have retail sales as well along with the standard jobless claims report, but otherwise, it’s a quieter week overall in regard to data.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 127.69% return whilst in the same period, the Q's have returned 49.01% / Spooz has returned 41.64% / Dow has returned 29.44% & Small-caps have returned 18.17%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 22.34% return on realized gains / winners & a 14.48% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future as we continue to progress through ‘25.
In April, we wrote about hard assets & the structural framework behind hard assets given recent events & future outlook along with some historical perspective as well… you can check it out below for those whom may have missed.
Hard Assets in an Era of Soft Money
As global central banks quietly rearm their stimulus arsenals and fiscal deficits spiral past the point of discipline, the foundations of the global monetary order are beginning to crack. Amid this shift, one question looms larger than ever: Are we on the verge of a new commodity supercycle?
We also published the follow up educational piece which has been highly requested and majority of the topics covered were all suggested by you all, so I hope you find good benefit.
For those who may have missed, a link to Educational Piece Part: Deux can be found here.
For those who may have missed the first educational piece, I included the range of topics covered below along with a link to the piece for those who would like to go back and read:
- General background / knowledge on all option strategies
- In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
- Options Structuring
- When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
- Choosing expiration dates
- Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
- General briefing on stock gaps
- What to look for in regards to fundamentals
- Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
- Hedging
- Creating risk/reward setups
- Taking profits / managing losses
- Overall Process
- Book recommendations
A link to the first educational write-up can be found here.