The Week Ahead 6/21/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the long weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Jumping straight into it, it was somewhat of a more volatile week as, initially coming into the week, the indices had gapped higher following the official MOU having been reached between the U.S. & Iran, but as the week progressed, especially following FOMC, the indices had pared off all of the weekly gains before then staging a rally following the digestion of FOMC, having closed out the week on a strong note.
And on the week, the Q’s ended up being the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by just over 260bps, whereas the Dow was among the ‘worst’ performing of the indices, yet still closed higher on the week by just shy of 50bps.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s a fairly quiet one ahead, with just PCE #’s being the most significant datapoint of the week on Thursday (the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation), as otherwise, there are just some minor & sporadic datapoints in between.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 193.66% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 110.45% / Spooz has returned 79.66% / Dow has returned 60.67% & Small-caps have returned 69.42%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 82.0% win rate, averaging a 30.58% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.70% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in looking back at this past week, after the prior week was mostly characterized by a standard momentum unwind & dash to Value / Lower-beta, this week was the complete opposite, with Momentum being the best performing factor on the week, with Growth ranking second, whereas Low-Volatility & Private Equity were the two worst performing factors on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, despite the continued bifurcated action along with the indices being just off the highs, the % of stocks above the 50D still isn’t necessarily signaling any shorter-term ‘euphoria’ or overbought conditions, as it sits near 52%, which, if anything, is a more neutral signal.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as just 53% of stocks remain above the 50D, which still more so paints a neutral picture & isn’t necessarily signaling overbought or even oversold conditions in the medium-term.
And with that being said, even with the indices practically sitting at all-time highs following the recent MOU having been reached between the U.S. & Iran, the Fear-Greed Index still remains within ‘Fear’ territory, which only further emphasizes that markets remain far from ‘true euphoria’ or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major or even interim tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
