The Week Ahead 6/22/25
Hello All,
I hope you all are enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & have had a good ‘25 thus far & I wish you all a successful remainder of Q2 as we nearly wrap up & prepare to head into the 2H of the year.
Despite all of the headline noise between the ME tensions & FOMC, this past week was a rather uneventful one & in terms of performance on the week, Small-caps ended up being the ‘best’ performing of the indices, +26bps on the week whereas Spooz ended up being the ‘worst’ performer on the week, granted, Spooz only closed lower by 31bps… essentially flat.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
As we get ready to head into the upcoming week, besides the continued tensions between Israel & Iran, in regard to economic data more specifically, the biggest event of the week is PCE #’s on Friday which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation & given Powell’s continued emphasis this past week that the Fed remains on hold due to worries of inflation into these coming months, it’s likely to be a more important report & especially the following month as tariffs start filtering through to the consumer.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 128.28% return whilst in the same period, the Q's have returned 48.98% / Spooz has returned 41.41% / Dow has returned 29.48% & Small-caps have returned 18.68%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.7% win rate, averaging a 22.34% return on realized gains / winners & a 14.48% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future as we continue to progress through ‘25.
In April, we wrote about hard assets & the structural framework behind hard assets given recent events & future outlook along with some historical perspective as well… you can check it out below for those whom may have missed.
Hard Assets in an Era of Soft Money
As global central banks quietly rearm their stimulus arsenals and fiscal deficits spiral past the point of discipline, the foundations of the global monetary order are beginning to crack. Amid this shift, one question looms larger than ever: Are we on the verge of a new commodity supercycle?
We also published the follow up educational piece which has been highly requested and majority of the topics covered were all suggested by you all, so I hope you find good benefit.
For those who may have missed, a link to Educational Piece Part: Deux can be found here.
For those who may have missed the first educational piece, I included the range of topics covered below along with a link to the piece for those who would like to go back and read:
- General background / knowledge on all option strategies
- In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
- Options Structuring
- When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
- Choosing expiration dates
- Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
- General briefing on stock gaps
- What to look for in regards to fundamentals
- Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
- Hedging
- Creating risk/reward setups
- Taking profits / managing losses
- Overall Process
- Book recommendations
A link to the first educational write-up can be found here.