The Week Ahead 6/28/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Jumping straight into it, the AI-trade / momentum unwind from the week prior continued into this week as we instead saw under-owned pockets of the market post strength compared to the over-owned pockets of the market, which got sold, thus leading to the Nasdaq being the worst-performing of the indices on the week, having closed lower by 460bps, whereas Small Caps were among the best-performing of the indices, having closed higher by just over 140bps.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it's a shortened one given the holiday on Friday, but the most important event of the week is Thursday's jobs report but besides that, there's just some scattered and minor labor & manufacturing data throughout the week, so it should be a quieter one.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 186.21% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 100.98% / Spooz has returned 75.39% / Dow has returned 61.37% & Small-caps have returned 71.85%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.5% win rate, averaging a 30.55% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.40% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in looking back at this past week, similar to the week prior, it was mostly characterized by a continued unwind within Momentum / the relative outperformance of Value & lower-volatility over Growth, but the worst-performing factor on the week was once again Private Equity.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers (Outside AI) year-to-date:
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, despite the weakness amongst Tech & even Spooz having closed lower on the week by 230bps, given the strength in the Russell along with the Dow, participation ended up being somewhat healthier on the upside & because of that, despite the drawdown, the % of stocks above the 20D still remains quite healthy, sitting around 60%, which still isn't necessarily signaling any shorter-term ‘euphoria’ or overbought conditions & if anything, leans toward a more neutral signal.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as just 58% of stocks remain above the 50D, which still more so paints a neutral picture & isn't necessarily signaling overbought or even oversold conditions in the medium term.
With that being said, despite the indices being hardly off the highs, the Fear-Greed Index worked into 'Extreme Fear' territory this past week, which once again emphasizes that this market remains far from 'true euphoria' or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major or even interim tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
