The Week Ahead 7/12/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, it was yet another one characterized by the continuation of the recent momentum unwind within the broader AI trade, which, by midweek, finally appeared to find a bottom, leading the Q’s to finish as the best-performing major index on the week, helped in part by the recent strength of the AI ‘spenders’ over the ‘receivers.’ Meanwhile, Small Caps were the ‘worst’ performing major index, although they only finished the week lower by just over 50bps.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s an important one as we have another round of inflation data, with CPI being reported on Tuesday, PPI on Wednesday, and, to round out the week, Retail Sales on Thursday.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 191.26% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 106.38% / Spooz has returned 81.63% / Dow has returned 63.87% & Small-caps have returned 69.65%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.6% win rate, averaging a 30.52% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.40% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, again, the week was mostly characterized earlier on by the continued unwind within the momentum / overall AI trade, which bottomed midweek before rallying into the latter half of the week. Because of that, both Growth & Momentum were the best-performing factors on the week, whereas Value, Low Volatility, & Small Cap Value were among the worst-performing factors on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
2. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
4. Mission Critical Security Stack
5. Robotics
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, the action this past week was a bit all over the place, with single-stock volatility running rampant despite the tame headline index-level action, but the recent momentum unwind has in part led to rotations into other pockets of the market, which has helped improve overall upside participation but despite all that, along with the indices practically sitting at all-time highs, only 55% of stocks remain above the 20D, which is a more neutral reading rather than signaling any overbought or oversold conditions.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as currently just 58% of stocks remain above their 50D, which also paints a more neutral picture and isn’t necessarily signaling either overbought or oversold conditions in the medium-term.
With that being said, following the recent expansion in breadth & lessened crowding in terms of overall upside participation, it’s helped to keep the indices overall quite bifurcated, leading to the group practically sitting just below all-time highs & along with that, it has also led to a rebound within the Fear-Greed Index, which is currently giving a ‘Neutral’ reading but still remains far from true euphoria or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major, or even interim tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
