The Week Ahead 7/19/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, the week was mostly characterized by the continued dispersion within the indices as, excluding tech, on the surface, it was a quieter week for the headline indices despite the continued & violent volatility within single stocks, but on the week, Small Caps ended up being the best-performing of the group, although still closing lower on the week by just over 60bps, whereas the Nasdaq, following the continued unwind within momentum, was the worst-performing of the indices, having closed lower by just over 400bps.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s a fairly quiet week ahead with just a few scattered minor datapoints throughout the week, but really, the bigger events will be upcoming earnings, with earnings season finally kicking off.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 185.85% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 97.79% / Spooz has returned 78.83% / Dow has returned 62.32% & Small-caps have returned 68.54%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.3% win rate, averaging a 30.52% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.17% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, as we highlighted earlier, this past week was once again characterized by the continued unwind within the Momentum / Overall AI trade, thus leading to both Momentum & Growth being the worst-performing factors on the week, whereas the Value-oriented & under-owned pockets of the market were the best-performing factors on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
3. Mission Critical Security Stack
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, given the dispersion within the indices, and really excluding Tech / Momentum-oriented factors, it was a quieter week under the hood, and that’s currently being reflected in the % of stocks above the 20D, which currently sits at 52%, emphasizing a more neutral reading rather than one that is overbought or oversold.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as currently 56% of stocks remain above their 50D, which also paints a more neutral picture and isn’t necessarily signaling either overbought or oversold conditions in the medium-term.
With that being said, even with breadth readings overall remaining quite healthy, as the Advance-Decline Index still sits near the highs, the dispersion within the indices hasn’t painted the true picture underneath the hood, where quite a bit of destruction has taken place as despite Spooz sitting less than 200bps from all-time highs, the Fear-Greed Index is back to sitting firmly within 'fear' territory, which still emphasizes a market that remains far from true euphoria or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major, or even interim, tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
