The Week Ahead 7/26/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, the week started off with a strong rebound within the momentum factor, although as the week progressed, geopolitics took over following the continued back & forth attacks in the Middle East between the U.S. & Iran, which in turn, of course caused quite the pickup in oil along with, more importantly, sending the 10Y higher toward 4.7%, which, to round off the week, left the Dow as the 'best' performer, although it still closed lower by 40bps, whereas the Q’s ended up being the worst performer, closing lower by 160bps after initially kicking off the week with a 200bps gain.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, the biggest upcoming event will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision, which, for now, the Fed is expected to remain on hold, but this recent spike higher in oil has led to some potential speculation that Warsh could surprise with a hike. Following FOMC, we have PCE on Thursday, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, but otherwise, there are just some minor & sporadic data points in between.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 181.67% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 94.64% / Spooz has returned 77.78% / Dow has returned 61.73% & Small-caps have returned 66.89%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.7% win rate, averaging a 30.52% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.14% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, as we highlighted earlier, initially to kick off the week, we saw quite the rebound within both the Growth & Momentum factor, although as the week progressed, the flare-up in geopolitics, followed by the rally higher in oil, led to a rotation back toward the value-oriented names & out of growth. That said, momentum did turn out to be the best performing factor on the week, whereas Growth turned out to be the worst.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
3. Mission Critical Security Stack
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, although on the headline index level, excluding the Q's, volatility has been tame given the underlying dispersion within the indices, there's been plenty of damage under the hood, which has slowly started to translate to the % of stocks above the 20D, which currently sits at 42% & is encroaching into oversold territory.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as the % of stocks above the 50D is starting to roll over, although it does still remain at 52% & firmly within neutral territory.
That said, despite the indices sitting just off their highs, with Spooz specifically only 250bps from its highs, the Fear & Greed Index still sits within ‘Fear’ territory, which again emphasizes that markets remain far from true euphoria or the type of positioning extremes typically associated with major and or interim tops.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
