The Week Ahead 8/16/26
Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, despite the slate of economic data, including inflation-related reports and retail sales, it was generally a quieter week as the low-vol Summer action remains in full swing, with the S&P having traded within one of its narrowest intraday ranges on record.
And in respect to the indices, Small Caps ended up being the best-performing group, closing higher by just over 110bps on the week, whereas the Dow was the ‘worst’ performer, yet still only finished the week lower by just over 50bps.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s a very quiet week ahead with no major events on the calendar. FOMC minutes on Wednesday will likely be a nothingburger, and aside from that, we just have a handful of minor and sporadic data points scattered throughout the week.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 202.80% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 105.16% / Spooz has returned 86.01% / Dow has returned 67.34% & Small-caps have returned 75.04%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 30.53% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.14% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, the general characterization was a broad-based rally across a diverse set of sectors as dispersion within the underlying indices continued its gradual unwind. That, in turn, helped aid the recent regrossing following the violent deleveraging seen in July.
And in terms of factors, Momentum ended up being the best-performing factor on the week, whereas Value-oriented & Lower-volatility factors were the worst performers.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
3. AI Full-Stack Infrastructure
4. Mission Critical Security Stack
5. Robotics
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, with the indices continuing to churn higher to new highs, excluding the Q’s for now, as we highlighted earlier, the crowding and underlying dispersion within the indices has finally begun to unwind as this recent rally has become much broader in what is essentially an ‘everything rally,’ thus aiding in a rebound, with the % of stocks above the 20D having climbed toward 65%, which is starting to encroach on ‘overbought’ territory but isn’t necessarily quite an ‘extreme’ reading yet either.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too as in the medium-term, the % of stocks above the 50D has climbed higher toward 62%, which again, isn’t necessarily an ‘extreme’ overbought reading, although it is generally starting to encroach into ‘overbought’ territory.
That said, with the indices continuing to melt up in an orderly fashion recently characterized by the broadening and or ‘everything rally,’ the Fear-Greed Index has moved upward back firmly into ‘Greed’ territory, but not quite an ‘extreme’ reading yet either.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
