Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, it was a quieter week on both the geopolitical & economic data fronts, until about midweek when the Treasury decided to surprise announce the doubling of buybacks, which in turn initially led to a bid in bonds, along with risk assets such as Crypto, Metals, Equities etc… whereas the floor fell through on the dollar as the administration is essentially indirectly stating they’re willing to sacrifice the dollar in order to support bonds.
That said, the ‘pump job’ on equities was faded into the latter half of the week, as bonds as well retraced the initial positive move following the Treasury announcement & it now looks like bonds are going to go on to test the administration’s ‘toolkit,’ but as for the indices, the Dow ended up being the ‘best’ performing of the indices, yet still closed out the week lower by just over 80bps, whereas the Nasdaq ended up being the worst performing of the indices, having closed lower by just over 240bps to round off the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, the most important event of the week is PCE #’s on Wednesday, given it’s the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation, but outside of that, it should be a quieter week ahead, at least on the economic data front, as there’s just some minor & sporadic datapoints in between.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 202.69% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 100.23% / Spooz has returned 83.47% / Dow has returned 66.05% & Small-caps have returned 72.10%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 30.53% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.14% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, it was a bit of a mixed bag, with the week initially having kicked off in favor of both the Growth & Momentum factors, but as the week progressed & pretty much through the remainder of the week, we continued to see capital instead rotate back toward the Value-oriented & or lower-volatility factors, which ended up being the best performers on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
1. Rebuilding U.S. Industrial Sovereignty
3. AI Full-Stack Infrastructure
5. Mission Critical Security Stack
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, with the indices having slightly come off their recent highs, we saw a bit of the shorter-term ‘overbought’ conditions get worked off, as just 52% of stocks now remain above the 20D, down from 65%, which is essentially a more ‘neutral’ reading here in the interim.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as in the medium-term, the % of stocks above the 50D sits at just 56%, which again, is a more ‘neutral’ reading rather than signaling an overbought & or oversold condition here in the medium-term.
That said, with the indices having slightly pulled back off the recent highs, the Fear-Greed Index has fallen back into ‘Neutral’ territory after having briefly worked its way into ‘Greed’ territory these last couple of weeks following the rally off the July deleveraging lows.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
