Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Looking back at this past week, it was generally a quieter week, even excluding Nvidia’s earnings along with Jackson Hole to round out the week, which ended up producing a ‘Kangaroo’ reaction in which the markets initially reacted negatively, than positively, than negatively in which Spooz ended up closing out Friday lower by just over 20bps whereas to round off the week, Spooz still ended up closing higher by just over 40bps.
That said, on the week, of the indices, the Dow was the best performer, having closed higher by just over 50bps whereas Small caps were the worst performing of the indices on the week, having closed lower on the week by just over 140bps following Warsh’s ‘hawkishly’ interpreted Jackson Hole speech on Friday.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s a week filled with labor market data, with most importantly, NFP numbers on Friday & for those who recall the last report, the headline number printed negatively, which helped to ease the hawkish pricing within rate markets but otherwise, there’s just some scattered labor and economic data throughout the week, but generally speaking, barring a drastic surprise, volumes will still likely be quieter up until we’re past Labor Day.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 201.72% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 101.06% / Spooz has returned 84.34% / Dow has returned 66.94% & Small-caps have returned 69.68%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 81.0% win rate, averaging a 30.50% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.14% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, looking back at this past week, it was a bit of a mixed bag but one of the bigger standouts on the week was the weakness in the Momentum factor despite Nvidia’s big FY ‘28 guide. Although granted, when you have crowded funding shorts going ballistic to the upside on the opposite end (SaaS), I guess it’s not much of a surprise in the end. But otherwise, lower-volatility and value were the ‘best’ performing factors on the week, although their performance was generally muted anyways.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
2. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
3. Mission Critical Security Stack
4. AI Full-Stack Infrastructure
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, an interesting piece in these markets is the continued churn / consolidation at record highs with generally good breadth. However, following last week’s softer end to the week given the perceived ‘hawkish’ reaction to Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, the % of stocks above the 20D fell lower toward 42%, which is nearly starting to encroach on shorter-term oversold territory.
Although on a more broader timeframe in terms of the medium-term, the % of stocks above the 50D sits at 50%, which is a more ‘neutral’ reading rather than signaling an overbought & or oversold condition.
That said, another interesting dynamic worth highlighting is that despite the indices essentially sitting at record highs, the Fear-Greed index moved back toward ‘neutral’ territory after having briefly sat within ‘greed’ territory.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
