Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Jumping straight into it, in looking back at this past week, despite being post-Labor Day, it was generally still a lower-volume week, yet not necessarily a lower-volatility one given the continued flare-up in the Middle East between the U.S. & Iran, with crude having surpassed 100/bbl again, along with the 10Y continuing its rise as well, whereas for the indices, the Q’s were the ‘best’ performer, yet ultimately ended up closing lower on the week by just over 50bps, whereas the Russell was the worst performer, having closed lower by just over 240bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s an important one given the upcoming FOMC meeting, in which, for now, rate markets are practically pricing in a hike as a certainty, & we also have some other minor & sporadic datapoints throughout the week, including retail sales on Wednesday too.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 203.01% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 100.63% / Spooz has returned 83.13% / Dow has returned 64.05% & Small-caps have returned 65.75%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 27.13% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.01% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in looking back at this past week, the momentum factor ended up being the best-performing group on the week, whereas small-cap value, along with lower-volatility groups, were the worst performers as the market started to warm up a bit more to Tech / Beta in general, demonstrated by the Nasdaq having been the best-performing of the indices on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
2. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
3. AI Full-Stack Infrastructure
4. Mission Critical Security Stack
5. The Supply Destruction Setup
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, despite the indices being just off the highs, there’s been quite the deterioration in breadth / upside participation, driven by the continued rise in yields due to the flare-up in the Middle East with no resolve in sight, but just 29% of stocks sit above the 20D, which isn’t quite necessarily an extreme oversold reading, but it’s certainly an oversold one making its way toward an ‘extreme’ reading.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too, as in the medium-term, the % of stocks above the 50D has fallen back toward 39%, which isn’t necessarily an ‘extreme’ reading either, but it’s certainly a slightly oversold one.
And on top of the above, despite Spooz sitting just over 200bps off all-time highs, the Fear-Greed index has worked its way back firmly into ‘fear’ territory, once again emphasizing that under-the-hood, we’ve seen quite the ‘reset’ given the recent deterioration in breadth followed by the recent rise in the 10Y.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
