Hello All,
I hope you’re all enjoying the weekend and getting some time away from the screens & wishing you all a successful remainder of ‘26.
Jumping straight into it, in looking back at this past week, yet again, it was a lower-volume week with it being the last week of the Summer, although post-Labor Day, we should slowly start to see volumes pick back up.
Nevertheless, earlier on in the week, we saw a bit of weakness in the indices, mostly driven by the continued tit-for-tat between the U.S. & Iran, which, in turn, caused a rise in both Crude & of course the 10Y, which had finally & briefly encroached on 4.8%. That said, 4.8% on the 10Y sure enough did act as a ceiling for the entirety of the week, along with the dovish comments out of Waller, which aided in keeping yields contained along with the relief in equities, thus ultimately leading the indices to practically close out the week flat.
That said, the Q’s were the best performing of the indices, having closed higher by just over 30bps, whereas the Dow was the worst, yet only closed lower by just under 20bps on the week.
- Economic Data for the Coming Week:
In regard to economic data heading into the upcoming week, it’s an important one, as for starters, we’re now post-Labor Day, so generally speaking, volumes should slowly start to pick back up. But on top of that, we have both PPI & CPI #’s being reported into the latter half of the week, which are essentially the last datapoints before the upcoming FOMC meeting & for now, it’s practically 50-50 in terms of whether or not the Fed hikes, so these upcoming datapoints will likely be the deciding factor in determining whether or not the Fed hikes at the September meeting.
- STD Channels on Indices for Perspective: Weekly TF
- SPY
- QQQ
- IWM
- DJIA
Since starting this Substack back in June of ‘23, between individual names / tactical trades / baskets, we have netted a 203.22% return whilst in the same period, the Q’s have returned 104.52% / Spooz has returned 85.30% / Dow has returned 66.64% & Small-caps have returned 69.66%, so nice outperformance against all the indices whilst having a 80.9% win rate, averaging a 27.13% return on realized gains / winners & a 15.01% loss on realized losses / losers.
Looking forward to the future & continued success through ‘26.
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the week ahead, in looking back at this past week, despite the lower-volume, choppier volatility, the indices did close out the week on a stronger note, which was generally led by a big rebound within the momentum factor along with growth, both of which ended up being the best performing factors on the week, whereas the lower-volatility & or value-oriented groups ended up closing out as the worst performing factors on the week.
And in regard to the specific factors and or ‘baskets’ we’ve built on Plutus, here are the best performers year-to-date:
2. Industrial and Auto Analog Recovery
3. AI Full-Stack Infrastructure
4. Mission Critical Security Stack
Whereas on the flip side, the worst performing baskets year-to-date have been:
Moving along, despite these recent weeks having been on the quieter side as well as the indices having held near all-time highs, this recent digestion period has helped to work off prior overbought conditions, as for now, just 45% of stocks remain above the 20D, which is neither an overbought nor oversold signal, but instead more neutral.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe too as in the medium-term, the % of stocks above the 50D has fallen back toward 50%, which is essentially giving off a neutral reading here.
And on top of the above, despite Spooz sitting just 120bps off all-time highs, the Fear-Greed index has worked its way back into ‘fear’ territory, once again emphasizing that under-the-hood, we’ve seen quite the ‘reset’ given the recent deterioration in breadth followed by the recent rise in the 10Y.
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
