To Concede or Not to Concede
Hello All,
Yet again, it’s been another eventful week geopolitically, as a ceasefire was reached between the U.S. and Iran last night, which in turn has led to a sharp gain across the indices on the week.
As of now, Small caps are currently leading as the best performing group, up just over 360bps, while the Dow is the laggard, though still sits higher by just over 300bps on the week.
For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the recap, taking a look at the week thus far, despite the sharp rally in the indices following last night’s ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran, after initially seeing a wide spread between the two groups (Growth & Value) earlier in the week (Both negatively & then positively today), the spread between Growth & Value is essentially flat on the week:
But on the year, the spread between Growth and Value has continued to widen, although has narrowed slightly more recently but still sits at just over 12%, down from 14% the week prior:
And another look in respect to factor performance but on the week, Momentum along with Small cap value are among the best performing groups whereas Low-volatility & Private Equity are among the worst performing factors on the week:
That being said, following today’s large rally amongst the indices, in the shorter-term, we’ve quickly shifted from oversold to encroaching overbought as the % of stocks above the 20D currently sits just below 73% after being below 20% just this past week:
Although on a more broader timeframe, the overall picture still leans more neutral in respect to readings as just 50% of stocks currently remain above the 50D, which again emphasizes a market that has worked out of oversold territory, but on a broader timeframe general conditions still lean more neutral, whereas in the shorter-term as we mentioned just above, are encroaching overbought territory:
And what’s even more interesting is despite the recent sharp snapback within the indices, the fear-greed index still remains well into ‘fear’ territory despite Spooz, for example, being just 4% off all-time highs.
And to add some historical context, here’s the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
