To Concede or Not To Concede
Hello All,
Jumping straight into it, it’s been a relatively quieter week at the index level, with FOMC and a big chunk of Mag-7 earnings now out of the way, and for the most part, the past few weeks have simply been a digestion phase following that historic 2-week rally stretch.
That said, on the week, Spooz is the best performing of the indices, yet still sits lower by roughly 30bps, while Small caps are the worst performing, currently down just over 160bps.
For those who may have missed our ‘2026 Outlook,’ which covers a wide range of topics and themes, and would like to revisit the report, I’ve included it just below here:
And for anyone who wants to follow an actively managed portfolio in real time:
I’ve joined Plutus as the cleanest, day-to-day way to track an actively managed portfolio in real time. It’s a live dashboard that’s broader, more diversified, actively managed by me, & updated continuously.
The Eliant Flagship is published on RunPlutus.
Once your Plutus account is approved, you’ll have the option to allocate right away. If you do, it’s straightforward: create an account, link your brokerage (Available only for IBKR at this time), & select the Eliant Flagship (or any of the baskets I’ve built). Your money stays in your account, and trades, position changes, and rebalances are replicated automatically so there’s nothing manual to manage. The idea is to make it easier to access an actively managed portfolio run by me without the overhead of traditional fund structures or high minimums, whilst you keep full custody of your assets & I stay focused on research, positioning, and portfolio construction.
And just to be clear, NOTHING is changing with Substack. It’ll stay exactly what it’s always been since we originally launched in the Summer of ‘23: where I share the thinking, research, & select trades behind my personal PA, along with ongoing commentary across all markets.
Earlier in 2024, we launched a series titled Educational Pieces, covering a wide range of topics, many of which were suggested directly by you all (4-Part Series).
For those who may have missed the first installment, it covered topics including:
General background / knowledge on all option strategies
In-depth talk on risk / reversals & how to go about expressing / utilizing them
Options Structuring
When to used naked calls / puts vs. spreads
Choosing expiration dates
Identifying key pivots / supports / resistance zones
General briefing on stock gaps
What to look for in regards to fundamentals
Implementing fundamental / macro / technicals into a trade
Hedging
Creating risk/reward setups
Taking profits / managing losses
Overall Process
Book recommendations
A link to the original Educational Piece can be found here .
Given the positive feedback and how useful many of you found the first installment, we followed up with Educational Piece: Part Deux earlier in 2025 & for those who may have missed, a link to the piece can be found here & we then went on to release Educational Piece: Part Trois which can be found here.
And finally, the most recent installment, Educational Piece: Part Quatre, can be found here.
‘Risk management is the silent prerequisite for compounding & true wealth is built not by chasing the highest returns but by ensuring the survival necessary to realize them.’
Before we jump into the recap, as we highlighted earlier, following the historic 2-week rally stretch, the indices have largely been in a digestion phase and even on the week, they are only slightly lower / relatively flat, excluding Small caps.
And in regard to factor performance, Low Volatility & Value are among the best performing groups, whereas IPOs along with Private Equity remain the underperformers on the week.
With the recent digestion phase, despite the indices being essentially unchanged over the last two weeks, we have seen a slight deterioration in breadth as the AI factor trade and outperformance within Semiconductors has attracted the majority of capital.
That said, the % of stocks above the 20D has fallen to 49% from just over 80% a couple weeks back, despite the indices remaining unchanged, which further emphasizes this ongoing digestion period and the reset of shorter-term overbought conditions back toward more neutral levels.
And similar can be said on a broader timeframe as well, with just 56% of stocks remaining above the 50D, down from 70% a couple of weeks ago, again highlighting this ongoing digestion period and the reset of shorter-term overbought conditions toward more neutral levels.
And although the indices have mostly been digesting following the recent historic 2-week stretch, markets still remain within ‘Greed’ territory:
Historical context of the Fear-Greed Index overlaid with the S&P:
